Slide 13 of 24
Notes:
So let’s get to what you want to know. What do we expect this upcoming winter?
When EIA’s demand forecast is combined with its outlook for production and net imports, distillate stocks are projected to remain towards the lower end of the normal range.
We are forecasting about an 11 million barrel build between the end of July 2001 and the end of November 2001, slightly more than the average over the past 5 years (10 million barrels), but less than the average of the last 10 years (15 ½ million barrels).
If, however, economic incentives are high enough, distillate stocks could build more, resulting in a higher distillate stock level heading into the winter. Of course, the reverse is true as well, if for example, the distillate fuel refining spread declines substantially. Since 1994, distillate fuel stocks have built by a maximum of 17.5 million barrels over this period (end of July to the end of November), and by as little as 4.1 million barrels.
