Slide 6 of 24
Notes:
Impacts of the Iraqi export cutoff during June and early July just began to impact U.S. imports at the end of July/early August, so the resumption of Iraqi exports in early/mid July are likely to not be felt until the very end of August or early September.
OPEC crude oil production cuts are not likely to be as great as their cuts in quotas. However, they are likely to make for a very tight crude oil market this winter unless the cuts are reversed shortly.
As a result, we expect WTI prices to average $28-30 per barrel or higher this winter.
