Slide 14 of 26
Notes:
- The outlook for heating oil costs this winter, due to high crude oil costs and tight heating oil supplies, breaks down to an expected increase in heating expenditures for a typical oil-heated household of more than $200 this winter, the result of an 18% increase in the average price and an 11% increase in consumption. The consumption increase is due to the colder than normal temperatures experienced so far this winter and our expectations of normal winter weather for the rest of this heating season.
- Last winter, Northeast heating oil (and diesel fuel) markets experienced an extremely sharp spike in prices when a severe weather situation developed in late January. It is virtually impossible to gauge the probability of a similar (or worse) price shock recurring this winter, and, as usual, we have omitted any such development from our base case. But, while not necessarily likely, it is more likely than compared to almost any previous situation for this time of year.
