Slide 4 of 26
Notes:
- EIA assumes in its base case that OPEC 10 production averages about 0.6 million barrels per day less in the 1st quarter of 2001 than was produced in the 4th quarter of 2000. This is based on the assumption that beginning in February 2001, OPEC 10 production is 1 million barrels per day less than the estimate for December 2000.
- From the fourth quarter of 1999 to the 4th quarter of 2000, worldwide oil production increased by about 3.8 million barrels per day to a level of 77.9 million barrels per day.
- After being sharply curtailed in December and January, EIA’s base case assumes that Iraqi oil exports return closer to more normal levels in February. By the second half of 2001, EIA assumes Iraqi crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels per day, roughly the peak levels reached last year.
- EIA also assumes that after increasing by about 1.2 million barrels per day in 2000, non-OPEC crude oil production increases by about 0.6 million barrels per day in 2001.
