Slide 8 of 15
Notes:
Stocks are important in the Northeast because they are the nearest source of supply when anything unexpected occurs, and they supply a significant portion of demand during the peak heating season. Stocks are normally an important part of East Coast winter distillate supply. Over the last 10 years, they provided about 15% of supply during the peak winter months of January and February. One of the biggest stock draws we have seen was in January 1994, when a prolonged severe cold spell required 666,000 barrels per day of stocks, covering almost 36% of demand for that month. On average, stocks supply the East Coast with about 260,000 barrels per day on average in January and 280,000 barrels per day in February. Those supplies represent draws of about 8 million barrels in one month.
East Coast refineries meet about 25% of demand during January and February, and other regions -- mostly the Gulf Coast -- supply 40-50% of the region’s needs.
Imports generally supply about as much as stocks during the peak months, with most of the product coming from Canada, the Virgin Islands and Venezuela. During the peak months, product from more distant sources (such as Europe) also helps to supply the region.
Thus, about 60% of the East Coast’s supply comes from distant sources, and if cold weather increases demand, resupply from these sources can take several weeks.
