Slide 7 of 15
Notes:
When EIA’s demand forecast is combined with its outlook for production and net imports, distillate stocks are projected to remain low for the rest of the year.
- Stocks are beginning at very low levels. The September 1 distillate fuel stock level (112 million barrels) is nearly 20% less than last year, and about 15% below the 10 year average for end of August levels.
- But stocks on the East Coast, at 39.8 million barrels, are 39% behind year-ago levels, and about a similar percentage below end-of-August 10-year average levels.
Over the last 10 years, the average stock build from the end of August through the end of November has been about 10 million barrels. We are forecasting about a 12 million barrel build, which does not reach the normal band. Forecast stocks peak at the end of November at 127 million barrels, about 13 million barrels below the bottom of the normal band.
If, however, economic incentives are high enough, we might see more production and more product placed into inventory than shown. Higher yields and crude utilization rates from domestic refiners could provide another 5-10 million barrels by the end of November -- assuming demand is not growing stronger than forecast.
