Slide 11 of 25
Notes:
- When EIA’s demand forecast is combined with its outlook for production and net imports, distillate stocks are projected to remain low for the rest of the year.
- The August 11 distillate fuel stock level is nearly 16% less than last year, but the East Coast is 45% behind year-ago levels.
- Over the last 10 years, the average stock build from the end of July through end of November has been about 16 million barrels. We are forecasting about a 20 million barrel build, but even that does not get us into the normal band. Forecast stocks peak at the end of November at 134 million barrels, almost 6 million barrels below the bottom of the normal band.
- If, however, economic incentives are high enough, we might be able to get back into the band. Higher yields and crude utilization rates could provide another 10-15 million barrels by the end of November over those shown. For example, if demand and net imports remained as currently forecast in the August Short-Term Energy Outlook, but refiners ran at yields and utilization rates seen in the fall of 1996, we might see 15 million barrels more stocks at the end of November.
