Slide 15 of 18
Notes:
- When EIA’s demand forecast is combined with its outlook for production and net imports, distillate stocks are projected to remain low for the rest of the year.
- - Stocks are beginning at very low levels. The end-of-August distillate stock level is nearly 21% less than last year (29 million barrels), and about 15% below the 10 year average for end of August levels.
- - But the East Coast is 39% behind year-ago levels, and about 31% below end of August 10-year average levels.
- Over the last 10 years, the average stock build from the end of August through end of November has been about 10 million barrels. We are forecasting about a 12-15 million barrel build, which does not get us into the normal band. Forecast stocks peak at the end of November at 127 million barrels, about 13 million barrels below the bottom of the normal band.
- If, however, economic incentives are high enough, we might see more inventory than shown. Higher yields and crude utilization rates from domestic refiners alone could provide another 5-10 million barrels by the end of November over those shown -- assuming demand is not growing stronger than forecast.
