Slide 9 of 18
Notes:
- Heating oil demand is strongly influenced by weather. The “normal” numbers are the expected values for winter 2000-2001 used in EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- The chart indicates the extent to which the last winter exhibited below-normal heating degree-days (and thus below-normal heating demand). Temperatures were consistently warmer than normal throughout the 1999-2000 heating season. This was particularly true in November 1999, February 2001 and March 2001. For the heating season as a whole (October through March), the 1999-2000 winter yielded total HDDs 10.7% below normal. Normal temperatures this coming winter would, then, be expected to bring about 11% higher heating demand than we saw last year.
- Relative to normal, the 1999-2000 heating season was the warmest in at least 25 years (the next-warmest over that time period was 1995-1996 at 8.5% below normal). The probability that this winter will be at least somewhat colder than last winter is about 95%. The probability that this winter will (overall) be 10% (or more) colder than last year is above 56%, while the probability that this winter will be 20% (or more) colder than last winter is about 10%.
- While normal temperatures this winter would imply broad increases in heating demand across the North Central and Northeastern United States, the potential for high demand growth appears to be greatest in the Midwest. Thus, natural gas and propane consumption under normal weather conditions this winter would be expected to exhibit higher year-over-year growth rates than heating oil.
