Executive Summary (Continued)
- Using a relatively simple algorithm, peak production years were estimated. The peak production year estimates ranged from 2021 to 2112 across the 12 scenarios. For example, using the USGS mean (expected) resource base estimate (3,003 billion barrels) and an annual production growth rate of 2 percent (similar to the current rate), the estimated peak production year is 2037.
- EIA’s estimates for production peaks occur later than those generated by other analysts, some of whom predicted the production peak will occur as early as 2004. EIA’s analysis indicates instead that world conventional oil production may increase two decades or more before it begins to decline.