Executive Summary
- These pages summarize a recent EIA presentation on when world conventional oil production will peak and the effect of different estimates of the world conventional oil resource base.
- A larger resource base generally leads to a later production peak. World oil resource base estimates have trended upward over the years, from 600 billion barrels estimated in the early 1940’s to as high as 3,900 billion barrels estimated this year by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).
- To illustrate the important factors affecting estimates of the peak production year, EIA postulated 12 scenarios based on three current USGS world conventional oil resource base estimates (2,248, 3,003 and 3,896 billion barrels - corresponding to high, mean and low probabilities of occurrence) and four world oil production annual growth rates (0, 1, 2 and 3 percent).