U.S. Crude Input Rising -- Still Need +1 MMB/D Through Mid-Summer

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• Refineries in fourth quarter 1999 and first quarter 2000 were running at fairly low input rates compared to prior years, despite higher demand.
  • U.S. refineries typically increase their crude inputs during the second quarter over the first quarter as they return from maintenance and turnaround schedules to ramp up for the high demand gasoline season.
  • The year began with low refining margins and a low level of crude inputs in January and February. This created a lower base than last year from which to grow into the summer gasoline season, when inputs will need to peak at higher levels than in 1998 or 1999.

• The good news is that crude runs have been increasing strongly as expected during March the first quarter. Keep in mind that they still need an additional 1 million barrels per day of crude oil between now and mid summer. However, given the recently announced OPEC crude production increases, we do not see crude supply being a constraint to meeting the required refinery input increases.