Total OECD Inventory Levels, 1996-2000

Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2000.

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OECD oil inventories are expected to be above average 1990-95 levels by the end of the year for the first time since November 1999. For most of 2000, OECD inventories are expected to closely follow 1996 levels, when prices were above $20 per barrel.

Of course, this doesn’t account for the increase in demand over the last few years, so when this is taken into account ...