EIA OPEC Production Assumption Projects Increasing Leakage

Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2000.

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• Production levels for all of OPEC (including Iraq) are assumed to rise about 2.1 million barrels per day from the first quarter to the fourth quarter this year.

• The EIA base case assumes OPEC-10 production (excluding Iraq) will increase about 1.4 million barrels per day from first to fourth quarter, putting them almost 1.1 million barrels per day over their new quota by the end of 2000.
  • In the second quarter, OPEC-10 production is assumed to exceed the new quota by 0.5 million barrels per day, returning to the levels of production in early 1999.
  • OPEC-10 production in the third quarter is assumed to be close to second quarter production, and production in the fourth quarter is assumed to rise about 0.5 million barrels per day over second quarter.

• Iraqi production is assumed to increase almost 0.7 million barrels per day from first to fourth quarter, which could be optimistic depending on their ability to keep their oil supply infrastructure intact.