Slide 22 of 28
Notes:
- On the supply side, propane production from gas plants and refineries is likely to increase again in both 1999 and 2000.
- We expect refinery production to follow its more recent trends, increasing with gasoline production. Unless prices cause the refiners to use more propane for fuel again, we may be seeing something close to 600 thousand barrels per day from refnieries by the year 2000. This represents about a 4 percent annual growth rate.
- Gas processing plant increases, however, may be tempered in 1999 by a predicted decline in natural gas production. Generally gas processing propane production is expected to say relatively flat, with volumes in 2000 being about the same as those seen in 1997.
- In total, this forecast represents a supply growth of about 60 thousand barrels per day between 1998 and 2000, which is a 3-percent-per-year increase from the dip in 1998, mostly due to refinery production.
- Large uncertainties surround these numbers. Refineries may use more of the propane they produce than shown. However gas processing production may be higher. The Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide more natural gas liquids. Purvin and Gertz have indicated that while the low prices have affected drilling in the shallow areas, the larger deepwater projects are still being pursued, and these projects contain much associated gas, rich in liquids.
