Table 4. Estimation Results for PAD District Regions

Table 4. Estimation Results for PAD District Regions

Dependent Variable: D(RETPAD1)		Dependent Variable: D(RETPAD2)		Dependent Variable: D(RETPAD3)		Dependent Variable: D(RETPAD4)		Dependent Variable: D(RETPAD5)
Sample: 1/03/2000 to 6/24/2002		Sample: 1/03/2000 to 6/24/2002		Sample: 1/03/2000 to 6/24/2002		Sample: 6/15/1998 to 6/24/2002		Sample: 1/03/2000 to 6/24/2002

Variable	Coefficient	Variable	Coefficient	Variable	Coefficient	Variable	Coefficient	Variable	Coefficient

C	0.008	C	-0.019	C	-0.015	C	-0.030	C	0.049
	(0.098)		(0.199)		(0.115)		(0.087)		(0.148)

DSPOTPAD1(-1)	0.295***	DSPOTPAD2(-1)	0.671***	DSPOTPAD3(-1)	0.334***	DSPOTPAD4(-1)	0.132***	DSPOTPAD5(-1)	0.184***
	(0.023)		(0.034)		(0.026)		(0.021)		(0.023)

DSPOTPAD1(-2)	0.224***	DSPOTPAD2(-2)	0.274***	DSPOTPAD3(-2)	0.253***	DSPOTPAD4(-2)	0.156***	DSPOTPAD5(-2)	0.143***
	(0.023)		(0.036)		(0.027)		(0.022)		(0.024)

DSPOTPAD1(-2)	0.182***	DSPOTPAD2(-3)	0.076**	DSPOTPAD3(-3)	0.147***	DSPOTPAD4(-3)	0.088***	DSPOTPAD5(-3)	0.135***
	(0.023)		(0.036)		(0.027)		(0.022)		(0.025)

DSPOTPAD1(-4)	0.093***	DSPOTPAD2(-4)	0.059*	DSPOTPAD3(-4)	0.119***	DSPOTPAD4(-4)	0.077***	DSPOTPAD5(-4)	0.102***
	(0.023)		(0.034)		(0.027)		(0.022)		(0.025)

DSPOTPAD1(-5)	0.101***			DSPOTPAD3(-5)	0.101***	DSPOTPAD4(-5)	0.026	DSPOTPAD5(-5)	0.105***
	(0.023)				(0.027)		(0.022)		(0.025)

DSPOTPAD1(-6)	0.053**			DSPOTPAD1(-6)	0.064**	DSPOTPAD1(-6)	0.037*	DSPOTPAD5(-6)	0.077***
	(0.023)				(0.027)		(0.022)		(0.025)

DSPOTPAD1(-7)	0.051**			DSPOTPAD1(-7)	0.065**	DSPOTPAD1(-7)	0.047**	DSPOTPAD5(-7)	0.091***
	(0.023)				(0.026)		(0.022)		(0.025)

DSPOTPAD1(-8)	0.033					DSPOTPAD1(-8)	0.063***	DSPOTPAD5(-8)	0.031
	(0.023)						(0.022)		(0.025)

DSPOTPAD1(-9)	0.071***					DSPOTPAD1(-9)	0.042*	DSPOTPAD5(-9)	0.025
	(0.023)						(0.022)		(0.024)

						DSPOTPNW(-1)	0.048**	DSPOTPAD5(-10)	0.026
							(0.021)		(0.023)

						DSPOTPNW(-2)	0.065***
							(0.023)

						DSPOTPNW(-3)	0.053**
							(0.024)

						DSPOTPNW(-4)	0.037
							(0.023)

						DSPOTPNW(-5)	0.063***
							(0.024)

						DSPOTPNW(-6)	0.037
							(0.024)

						DSPOTPNW(-7)	0.027
							(0.024)

						DSPOTPNW(-8)	0.003
							(0.023)

						DSPOTPNW(-9)	0.029
							(0.021)

Sum of Spot Lags	1.104	Sum of Spot Lags	1.080	Sum of Spot Lags	1.084	Sum of Spot Lags	1.026	Sum of Spot Lags	0.920

Adj. R^2	0.800	Adj. R^2	0.839	Adj. R^2	0.789	Adj. R^2	0.717	Adj. R^2	0.688
S.E. Regression	1.113	S.E. Regression	2.266	S.E. Regression	1.308	S.E. Regression	1.254	S.E. Regression	1.688
AIC	3.126073	AIC	4.512042	AIC	3.434214	AIC	3.376132	AIC	3.965400
F-statistic	58.5	F-statistic	169.2	F-statistic	69.8	F-statistic	30.6	F-statistic	29.4
D.W. statistic	1.31	D.W. statistic	2.99	D.W. statistic	1.92	D.W. statistic	1.32	D.W. statistic	.90

Source: EIA calculations.

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