|
1. Introduction
This paper reviews an updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009) reference case
that will be used as the starting point for pending and future analyses of proposed energy
and environmental legislation. The development of an updated reference case is
motivated primarily by the enactment of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
(ARRA) in mid-February 2009.1 ARRA provides significant new Federal funding, loan
guarantees, and tax credits to stimulate investments in energy efficiency and renewable
energy. The reference case in the recently published AEO2009, which reflected laws and
regulations in effect as of November 2008, does not include ARRA. The potential effects
of some ARRA provisions are large enough that an analysis of certain aspects of
proposed energy and environmental legislation that did not include ARRA in the
reference case could provide misleading results.2 Use of an updated reference case that
includes ARRA as the baseline for future analyses of proposed changes in laws and
regulations will help to avoid this problem.
The need to develop an updated reference case following the passage of ARRA also
provides the Energy Information Administration (EIA) with an opportunity to update the
macroeconomic outlook for the United States and global economies, which has been
changing at an unusually rapid rate in recent months. Ordinarily, the macroeconomic
assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook reference case are updated annually, in the
fall, based on economic projections provided by IHS Global Insight prior to development
of the modeling runs presented in the Annual Energy Outlook. However, in an
environment where the macroeconomic expectations are changing rapidly, it is
appropriate to update the macroeconomic assumptions as the energy-specific provisions
of ARRA are incorporated into EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).
Both the revised macroeconomic outlook and the energy-related provisions of ARRA
impact the updated reference case. Therefore, the difference between the recently
published AEO2009 reference case and the updated reference case incorporating both
ARRA and the updated economic forecast reflects more than the energy-related
provisions in ARRA alone. Although future analyses will focus on the difference
between the updated reference case and cases using that as a baseline and incorporating
proposed changes in laws and regulations, users of EIA’s projections may want to
understand the relative roles of ARRA and the change in the macroeconomic outlook in
driving the difference between the updated reference case and the one presented in
AEO2009.
To provide insights into this question, this paper presents, in addition to the AEO2009 reference case and the updated reference case, a “no-stimulus” case that reflects projections without ARRA. The effect of ARRA alone, including its energy-related provisions and its stimulative impact on the economy, can be roughly estimated by comparing the no-stimulus case to the updated reference case.3
In addition to a different macroeconomic outlook, the updated reference case also reflects
changes made in the parameters and/or structure of NEMS to reflect the specific energy-
related provisions of ARRA. In some cases, for example, the extension of production tax
credits for eligible renewables, it is relatively straightforward to incorporate ARRA
provisions. In other cases, where the provisions in ARRA fund initiatives that break new
ground, such as investment in “smart grid” technologies, modeling changes to reflect
ARRA are inherently more speculative. For some ARRA policies, both the nature of the
investments to be made, the implementation strategy for making those investments, and
the effectiveness of the program in increasing energy efficiency or promoting greater use
of renewable energy are all uncertain. In all cases, the modeling changes adopted reflect
the understanding of EIA analysts of the intended level and implementation of funding,
and estimates of impacts based on available literature and/or expert judgment.
The energy-specific provisions of ARRA that were represented in some fashion in NEMS
include:
- Weatherization and assisted housing
- Energy efficiency and conservation block grant programs
- State energy programs
- Plug-in hybrid vehicle tax credit
- Electric vehicle tax credit
- Updated tax credits for renewables
- Loan guarantees for renewables and biofuels
- Support for carbon capture and storage (CCS)
- Smart grid expenditures.
Other major changes in NEMS to reflect changes in energy markets, laws, and
regulations since the development of the AEO2009 reference case include:
- Update of macroeconomic assumptions
- Update of near-term fuel price projections
- Temporary reinstatement of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)
- Update of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.
The next section of the paper summarizes the combined impacts of changes to the
reference case. It is followed by two sections that briefly describe the changes made to
implement the updated reference case relative to the version of the reference case
included in the AEO2009 as published in March 2009. The Appendix to this report
provides the standard set of Annual Energy Outlook tables in a format that facilitates comparisons of the updated reference case to the no-stimulus case and the AEO2009 reference case published in March 2009.
Notes
|