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Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Power Plants:
Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, and Carbon Dioxide

Table ES4.  Summary of Projections, 2010 and 2020

Analysis Case

Coal-Fired Electricity Generation (Billion Kilowatthours)

Natural-Gas- Fired Electricity
Generation
(Billion Kilowatthours)

Carbon Allowance Fee (1999 Dollars per Metric Ton Carbon Equivalent)

Natural Gas Wellhead Price
(1999 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

Electricity Price
(1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

Annual Household Electricity Bill
(1999 Dollars)

Total Electricity Revenues (Billion 1999 Dollars)

2010 Results

Reference

2,284

1,123

NA

2.68

5.9

927

243

NOx Cap Cases

              

NOx 2005

2,237

1,161

NA

2.68

5.9

933

245

NOx 2008

2,237

1,164

NA

2.72

5.9

934

245

SO2 Cap Cases

          

 

  

SO2 2005

2,198

1,195

NA

2.67

5.9

937

246

SO2 2008

2,259

1,146

NA

2.63

5.9

929

243

SO2 Sensitivity

2,237

1,169

NA

2.72

5.9

932

244

CO2 Cap Cases

              

CO2 1990-7% 2005

1,113

1,859

143

4.36

8.3

1,126

319

CO2 1990-7% 2008

1,055

1,922

139

4.13

8.2

1,126

318

CO2 Sensitivity

1,454

1,609

102

3.48

7.6

1,070

297

Integrated Cases

             

Integrated 2005

1,276

1,746

114

3.83

7.9

1,094

306

Integrated 1990-7% 2005

1,135

1,839

134

4.33

8.4

1,128

320

Integrated 2008

1,261

1,789

108

3.75

7.7

1,087

303

Integrated 1990-7% 2008

1,067

1,935

126

4.16

8.2

1,121

316

Integrated Sensitivity

1,444

1,617

101

3.52

7.6

1,074

299

2020 Results

Reference

2,370

1,866

NA

3.14

6.0

993

288

NOx Cap Cases

              

NOx 2005

2,335

1,894

NA

3.18

6.0

996

289

NOx 2008

2,328

1,902

NA

3.15

6.0

995

289

SO2 Cap Cases

              

SO2 2005

2,329

1,911

NA

3.20

6.0

995

289

SO2 2008

2,339

1,901

NA

3.25

6.1

1,005

293

SO2 Sensitivity

2,331

1,904

NA

3.17

6.0

996

289

CO2 Cap Cases

              

CO2 1990-7% 2005

885

2,704

141

4.22

7.9

1,149

347

CO2 1990-7% 2008

876

2,748

139

4.38

7.9

1,153

350

CO2 Sensitivity

1,191

2,591

112

4.00

7.5

1,121

337

Integrated Cases

             

Integrated 2005

1,000

2,752

113

4.04

7.6

1,127

338

Integrated 1990-7% 2005

852

2,774

130

4.30

7.8

1,146

345

Integrated 2008

998

2,746

116

4.32

7.7

1,140

343

Integrated 1990-7% 2008

834

2,816

129

4.42

7.9

1,148

347

Integrated Sensitivity

1,159

2,623

115

4.06

7.6

1,129

339
Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs MCBASE.D121300A, MCNOX05.D121300A, MCNOX08.D121300A, MCSO205.D121300A, MCSO208.D121300A, MCSO205H.D121300A, FDC7B05.D121300A, FDC7B08.D121300A, FDC7B05H.D121300A, FDPOL05.D121300A, FDP7B05.D121300B, FDPOL08.D121500A, FDP7B08.D121500A, and FDP7B05H.D121300A.

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