2005 Projections

CO₂ Emissions
(Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)

637

473

536

605

602

593

Carbon Allowance Fee
(1999 Dollars per Metric Ton Carbon Equivalent)

0

113

71

NA

NA

NA

NO_x Retrofits (Gigawatts)

110

196

60

199

196

194

SO₂ Retrofits (Gigawatts)

11

10

12

4

44

38

Coal-Fired Capacity (Gigawatts)

302

299

300

304

303

301

Electricity Generation by Fuel (Billion Kilowatthours)

  Coal

2,156

1,347

1,695

2,084

2,051

2,038

  Natural Gas

813

1,367

1,098

561

586

526

  Nuclear

740

740

740

609

609

609

  Renewables^b

97

166

174

61

61

61

Natural Gas Wellhead Price (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

2.49

3.46

2.85

NA

NA

NA

Coal Minemouth Price (1999 Dollars per Ton)

14.76

13.07

13.70

NA

NA

NA

Electricity Demand (Billion Kilowatthours)

3,762

3,564

3,648

3,612

3,612

3,539

Electricity Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

6.2

8.1

7.2

NA

NA

NA

SO₂ Emissions (Million Tons)

10.4

4.9

8.2

11.0

7.0

7.3

NO_x Emissions (Million Tons)

4.22

1.46

2.74

4.22

4.19

4.17

2010 Projections

CO₂ Emissions
(Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)

686

443

430

621

567

515

Carbon Allowance Fee
(1999 Dollars per Metric Ton Carbon Equivalent)

0

134

126

NA

NA

NA

NO_x Retrofits (Gigawatts)

115

197

146

209

200

190

SO₂ Retrofits (Gigawatts)

0

10

12

6

63

45

Coal-Fired Capacity (Gigawatts)

317

260

265

303

294

279

Electricity Generation by Fuel (Billion Kilowatthours)

  Coal

2,284

1,135

1,067

2,114

1,812

1,653

  Natural Gas

1,123

1,839

1,935

759

1,054

972

  Nuclear

720

741

741

580

580

580

  Renewables^b

125

253

254

61

61

61

Natural Gas Wellhead Price (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

2.68

4.33

4.16

NA

NA

NA

Coal Minemouth Price (1999 Dollars per Ton)

13.69

11.82

12.03

NA

NA

NA

Electricity Demand (Billion Kilowatthours)

4,146

3,832

3,868

3,809

3,809

3,568

Electricity Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

5.9

8.4

8.2

NA

NA

NA

SO₂ Emissions (Million Tons)

9.7

3.9

4.0

9.7

4.6

4.5

NO_x Emissions (Million Tons)

4.20

1.30

1.32

4.15

3.52

3.15

^aIncludes high efficiency assumptions.

^bExcludes hydroelectric generation.

NA = not available.

Note: See Table 22 for EPA and EPRI reference case results.

Case constraints: EIA: CO₂ reductions to 1990 levels met in either 2005 or 2008, with CO₂ 7% below 1990 level by 2010, NO_x 75% below 1997, and SO2 75% below 1997. EPA: carbon emissions capped at 567 MMT by 2008, and SO₂ emissions capped at 50% of CAAA by 2010; and carbon emissions capped at 515 MMT in 2008, and SO₂ emissions capped at 50% of CAAA and electricity demand reduced gradually beginning in 2001. Retrofits include units with both NO_x and SO₂ reduction technology. EPRI: Current Policy Direction—50% SO₂ reduction by 2007, CO₂ capped at 9% above 1990 in 2005-2008, constant thereafter; Carbon Glide—SO₂ emissions capped at 8.95 million metric tons carbon equivalent, CO₂ restrictions imposed in 2005, gradually increasing to 2030, so that cumulative CO₂ emissions by 2050 equal those obtained in Current Policy Direction case. ELI: coal-fired generation reduced by 25% from baseline (1998) levels by 2005, and by 50% from baseline by 2010.

Sources: EIA: National Energy Modeling System, runs MCBASE.D121300A, FDP7B05.D121300B, and FDP7B08.D121500A. EPA: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Analysis of Emissions Reduction Options for the Electric Power Industry (Washington, DC, March 1999), runs HGIPM18B and HGIPM11C. EPRI: Electric Power Research Institute, Energy-Environment Policy Integration and Coordination Study: Executive Report (Washington, DC, April 2000), runs Current Policy Direction and Carbon Glidepath. ELI: Environmental Law Institute, Cleaner Power: The Benefits and Costs of Moving from Coal to Natural Gas Power Generation (Washington, DC, November 2000), runs “Business as Usual” and “Coal Reduction.”