1 A copy of the request letter is included in Appendix A.

2 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0383(2004), (Washington, DC, January 2004); http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html.

3 Energy Information Administration, Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment, SR/O&G/2000-2 (Washington, DC, May 2000); http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/ petroleum/analysis_publications/arctic_national_wildlife_refuge/html/anwr101.html.

4 The coastal plain of ANWR is roughly north of the Sadlerochit Mountains and west of the Aichilik River.

5 The 95-percent probability estimate refers to a 19 in 20 chance of there being oil resources equal to the size of that estimate; the mean probability estimate refers to a 1 in 2 chance of there being oil resources equal to the size of that estimate; and the 5-percent probability estimate refers to a 1 in 20 chance of there being oil resources equal to the size of that estimate.

6 A similar question was raised by Senator Frank Murkowski in a December 20, 2001, request. See Energy Information Administration, The Effects of the Alaska Oil and Natural Gas Provisions of H.R. 4 and S. 1766 on U.S. Energy Markets , SR/OIAF/2002-02, (Washington, DC, February 2002); http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/aong/pdf/sroiaf(2002)02.pdf.

7 U.S. Geological Survey, “The Oil and Gas Resource Potential of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 1002 Area, Alaska,” Survey Open File Report 98-34, 1999, Chapter EA (Economic Analysis).

8 Technically recoverable resources are resources that can be produced using current technology.

9 US Geological Survey, USGS Fact Sheet FS-028-01, April 2001; http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0028-01.

10 Energy Information Administration, Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0554(2004), (Washington, DC, February 2004), page 89, Table 50; http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/pdf/0554(2004).pdf.

11 Energy bill: http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgibin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=108_cong_bills&docid=f:h6eh.txt.pdf.

12 Energy Information Administration, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview, DOE/EIA-0581(2003), (Washington, DC, March 2003); http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/forecasting/05812003.pdf.

13 The 13 billion barrels of Prudhoe Bay field oil represent the cumulative volume of oil expected to be produced from this field over its entire production life. The amount of in-place oil in Prudhoe Bay is estimated to be 25 billion barrels.

14 The growth in U.S. crude oil production between 2002 and 2008 largely reflects the projected growth in offshore lower 48 oil production.

15 Based, respectively, on the low and high oil resource case ANWR production levels in 2025. World oil consumption is projected to be 118.8 millions barrels per day in 2025, as published in Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2003, DOE/EIA-0484(2003), (Washington, DC, May 2003), Table A4, page 185; http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

16 The maximum throughput capacity of TAPS is 2.136 million barrels per day, which is slightly above the 2.12 million barrels per day projected in the high oil resource case in 2023. ( Rates exceeding 1,440,000 barrels per day assume drag reduction agent injection.) Source: Alyeska Pipeline Service Co., http://www.alyeska-pipe.com/PipelineFacts/PipelineOperations.html.

17 Deutsche Bank, Picking the winners from the liquid gas boom, May 2, 2003, Figure 6, page 8.

18 Based on a presentation prepared by BP, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil entitled: “Alaska Producer Pipeline Update,” May 2002, Slide 16. Includes natural gas volumes required as lease, pipeline, processing, and electricity generation fuel.

19 United States Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey 2002 Petroleum Resource Assessment of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA), USGS Fact Sheet 045-02, Table 1, and personal communication on March 1, 2004, with Emil Attanasi, Ph.D., U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia. Estimates include NPRA, native lands, and adjacent offshore areas within a 3-mile boundary surrounding NPRA. The USGS mean gas resource estimates for NPRA are 61 tcf for non-associated gas and 12 tcf for associated-dissolved natural gas. The NPRA figures cited in the text represent the 95-percent and 5-percent probability gas resource estimates, respectively. Associated-dissolved natural gas is co-located with crude oil in a reservoir, while non-associated gas is found without any crude oil in a reservoir.

20 U.S. Geological Survey, The Oil and Gas Resource Potential of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 1002 Area, Alaska Open File Report 98-34, Table AO3. Gas resource estimates include Federal lands, Native lands, and the State offshore area within the 3-mile limit.

21 Ibid. Table EA3. These associated-dissolved gas figures are for the Federal lands portion of ANWR only (ie, the 1002 Area) and do not include the Native lands and the 3-mile offshore portions of the ANWR coastal plain. The more inclusive gas resources estimates were not available from USGS at the time of publication.

22 The phrase “might reduce” is used in this context because this resource risk is only reduced if large volumes of natural gas are, in fact, found in ANWR. However, the finding of such resources can only occur if ANWR is opened to exploration and development. If ANWR is opened to petroleum development and no large gas deposits are found, then the pipeline’s resource risk remains unchanged.