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Table 6.  Coal Market Projections in the Reference and
Advanced Technology Cases, 2010 and 2020

Projections

1999

Reference

Advanced Technology

Without Emissions Limits

With
Emissions Limits

Without Emissions Limits

With
Emissions Limits

   

2010

Consumption by Electricity Generators, Excluding Cogenerators
(Million Short Tons)

   920

1,139

623

1,125

644

Production (Million Short Tons)

1,102

1,289

783

1,271

800

Minemouth Price (1999 Dollars per Short Ton)

17.13

14.19

14.63

12.73

13.40

Delivered Price to Electricity Generators (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

1.21

1.06

0.98

0.98

0.93

Effective Delivered Price to Electricity Generatorsa
(1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

1.21

1.06

3.35

0.98

2.69

Average SO2 Content (Pounds per Million Btu)

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

Average Hg Content (Pounds per Trillion Btu)

7.7

7.3

6.1

7.2

6.1

CO2 Allowance Cost (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

0.00

0.00

2.37

0.00

1.76

   

2020

Consumption by Electricity Generators, Excluding Cogenerators (Million Short Tons)

   920

1,190

515

1,133

563

Production (Million Short Tons)

1,102

1,336

679

1,271

716

Minemouth Price (1999 Dollars per Short Ton)

17.13

12.93

12.61

10.76

10.97

Delivered Price to Electricity Generators (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

1.21

0.98

0.84

0.85

0.78

Effective Delivered Price to Electricity Generatorsa
(1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

1.21

0.98

3.97

0.85

2.26

Average SO2 Content (Pounds per Million Btu)

2.0

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.8

Average Hg Content (Pounds per Trillion Btu)

7.7

7.1

6.2

7.1

6.0

CO2 Allowance Cost (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

0.00

0.00

3.12

0.00

1.48

aEffective delivered price reflects the cost impact of CO2 emission allowances in cases that include a CO2 limit.
Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs SCENABS.D080301A, SCENAEM.D081601A, SCENBBS.D080301A, and SCENBEM. D081701A.

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