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Table 27.  Industrial Sector Projections in the CEF-JL Moderate
and Advanced Cases, 2010 and 2020

Projections

1999

Reference

CEF-JL Moderate

CEF-JL Advanced

Without Emissions Limits

With
Emissions Limits

Without Emissions Limits

With
Emissions Limits

   

2010

Industrial Output (Billion 1992 Dollars)

4,722

6,223

6,215

6,214

6,205

6,203

Industrial Output Growth (Annual Percent, 1999-2010)

—

2.54

2.53

2.53

2.51

2.51

Delivered Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)

27.6

31.1

30.4

30.4

29.7

29.6

  Petroleum

  9.5

10.5

10.2

10.2

9.9

10.0

  Natural Gas

  9.8

11.3

11.0

11.2

10.7

10.7

  Coal

  2.5

  2.6

  2.5

  2.5

  2.4

  2.3

  Renewables

  2.2

  2.6

  2.6

  2.6

  2.8

  2.8

  Purchased Electricity

  3.6

  4.2

  4.1

  3.9

  3.9

  3.9

Delivered Energy Intensity
(Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of Output)

5.84

5.00

4.89

4.89

4.78

4.78

Change in Delivered Energy Intensity
(Annual Percent, 1999-2010)

—

-1.39

-1.60

-1.59

-1.79

-1.80

Average Delivered Prices (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

  5.29

  5.62

  5.33

  5.99

  5.44

  5.79

  Electricity

13.12

12.04

11.15

15.09

13.18

14.01

  Natural Gas

  2.79

  3.46

  3.12

  3.56

  2.96

  3.42

  Petroleum

  5.54

  6.07

  6.01

  5.92

  5.60

  5.75

Effective Delivered Pricesa (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

  5.29

  5.62

  5.33

  5.99

  6.03

  6.39

  Electricity

13.12

12.04

11.15

15.09

13.18

14.01

  Natural Gas

  2.79

  3.46

  3.12

  3.56

  3.67

  4.12

  Petroleum

  5.54

  6.07

  6.01

  5.92

  6.19

  6.34

CO2 Emissions (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)

480

533

522

468

473

454

   

2020

Industrial Output (Billion 1992 Dollars)

4,722

8,083

8,062

8,060

8,042

8,043

Industrial Output Growth (Annual Percent, 1999-2020)

—

2.59

2.58

2.58

2.57

2.57

Delivered Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)

27.6

34.7

33.2

33.2

32.0

32.0

  Petroleum

  9.5

11.6

10.9

11.0

10.5

10.5

  Natural Gas

  9.8

12.7

12.2

12.7

11.6

11.6

  Coal

  2.5

  2.6

  2.5

  2.5

  2.3

  2.3

  Renewables

  2.2

  3.1

  3.0

  3.0

  3.4

  3.4

  Purchased Electricity

  3.6

  4.8

  4.5

  4.0

  4.2

  4.2

Delivered Energy Intensity
(Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of Output)

5.84

4.30

4.11

4.12

3.98

3.98

Change in Delivered Energy Intensity
(Annual Percent, 1999-2020)

—

-1.45

-1.65

-1.64

-1.81

-1.81

Average Delivered Prices (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

  5.29

  5.82

  5.47

  5.96

  5.58

  5.73

  Electricity

13.12

12.07

11.77

15.57

13.63

13.71

  Natural Gas

  2.79

  3.73

  3.11

  3.46

  2.99

  3.26

  Petroleum

  5.54

  6.12

  6.01

  5.90

  5.64

  5.71

Effective Delivered Pricesa (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

  5.29

  5.82

  5.47

  5.96

  6.16

  6.31

  Electricity

13.12

12.07

11.77

15.57

13.63

13.71

  Natural Gas

  2.79

  3.73

  3.11

  3.46

  3.70

  3.97

  Petroleum

  5.54

  6.12

  6.01

  5.90

  6.22

  6.28

CO2 Emissions (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)

480

585

566

494

489

472

aEffective delivered price reflects the cost impact of CO2 emission allowances in cases that include a CO2 limit.
Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs SCENABS.D080301A, SCENCBS.D080301A, SCENCEM.D081601A, SCENDBS.D092601B, and SCENDEMR.D092701A.

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