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Table 23.  Commercial Sector Projections in the CEF-JL Moderate and
Advanced Cases, 2010 and 2020

Projections

1999

Reference

CEF-JL Moderate

CEF-JL Advanced

Without Emissions Limits

With
Emissions Limits

Without Emissions Limits

With
Emissions Limits

   

2010

Delivered Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)

7.6

9.9

9.5

9.2

9.4

9.2

  Electricity

3.7

4.9

4.6

4.4

4.5

4.5

  Natural Gas

3.1

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

  Petroleum

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Delivered Prices (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

13.28

12.23

11.33

13.38

12.26

12.94

  Electricity

21.64

18.76

17.60

21.65

19.70

20.65

  Natural Gas

  5.34

  5.63

  5.32

  5.73

  5.17

  5.59

  Petroleum

  4.99

  6.27

  6.25

  6.17

  5.98

  6.05

Effective Delivered Pricesa (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

13.28

12.23

11.33

13.38

12.65

13.32

  Electricity

21.64

18.76

17.60

21.65

19.70

20.65

  Natural Gas

  5.34

  5.63

  5.32

  5.73

  5.89

  6.31

  Petroleum

  4.99

  6.27

  6.25

  6.17

  6.96

  7.02

CO2 Emissions (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)

242

315

298

236

261

238

   

2020

Delivered Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)

7.6

10.9

10.0

9.8

9.7

9.6

  Electricity

3.7

  5.6

  4.9

4.6

4.7

4.7

  Natural Gas

3.1

  4.5

  4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

  Petroleum

0.6

  0.6

  0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Delivered Prices (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

13.28

12.55

11.66

13.28

12.43

12.62

  Electricity

21.64

18.83

18.41

21.94

20.22

20.31

  Natural Gas

  5.34

  5.67

  5.08

  5.42

  4.95

  5.22

  Petroleum

  4.99

  6.37

  6.29

  6.16

  6.15

  6.16

Effective Delivered Pricesa (1999 Dollars per Million Btu)

13.28

12.55

11.66

13.28

12.82

13.01

  Electricity

21.64

18.83

18.41

21.94

20.22

20.31

  Natural Gas

  5.34

  5.67

  5.08

  5.42

  5.67

  5.94

  Petroleum

  4.99

  6.37

  6.29

  6.16

  7.12

  7.13

CO2 Emissions (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)

242

347

316

242

261

240

aEffective delivered price reflects the cost impact of CO2 emission allowances in cases that include a CO2 limit.
Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs SCENABS.D080301A, SCENCBS.D080301A, SCENCEM.D081601A, SCENDBS.D092601B, and SCENDEMR.D092701A.

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