|
Table 14. Energy Market Projections in the CEF-JL Moderate and Advanced Cases, 2020
|
Projections |
1999 |
2020 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Reference |
CEF-JL Moderate |
CEF-JL Advanced |
||||
|
Without Emissions Limits |
With |
Without Emissions Limits |
With |
|||
|
Production (Quadrillion Btu) |
73.3 |
87.6 |
82.8 |
79.0 |
76.9 |
75.9 |
|
Petroleum |
15.1 |
15.2 |
14.3 |
14.8 |
14.2 |
14.5 |
|
Natural Gas |
19.2 |
30.1 |
26.1 |
28.1 |
25.5 |
26.6 |
|
Coal |
23.1 |
27.1 |
26.5 |
16.8 |
19.3 |
16.4 |
|
Nuclear Power |
7.8 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
6.9 |
6.1 |
6.6 |
|
Renewable Energy |
6.5 |
8.4 |
8.6 |
11.5 |
10.8 |
11.1 |
|
Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) |
96.3 |
127.7 |
120.2 |
116.2 |
108.7 |
107.9 |
|
Petroleum |
37.9 |
50.4 |
47.9 |
47.9 |
42.4 |
42.5 |
|
Natural Gas |
22.3 |
35.9 |
31.3 |
33.8 |
30.7 |
32.0 |
|
Coal |
21.4 |
26.3 |
25.8 |
15.7 |
18.3 |
15.5 |
|
Nuclear Power |
7.8 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
6.9 |
6.1 |
6.6 |
|
Renewable Energy |
6.5 |
8.4 |
8.6 |
11.5 |
10.8 |
11.1 |
|
Change in Primary Energy Intensity |
— |
-1.6 |
-1.9 |
-2.0 |
-2.4 |
-2.4 |
|
Delivered Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) |
72.1 |
97.3 |
92.1 |
91.6 |
84.7 |
84.6 |
|
Residential |
10.7 |
13.5 |
12.6 |
12.2 |
11.6 |
11.5 |
|
Commercial |
7.6 |
10.9 |
10.0 |
9.8 |
9.7 |
9.6 |
|
Industrial |
27.6 |
34.7 |
33.2 |
33.2 |
32.0 |
32.0 |
|
Transportation |
26.3 |
38.2 |
36.3 |
36.3 |
31.5 |
31.5 |
|
Electricity Sales |
3,294 |
4,763 |
4,197 |
3,910 |
3,862 |
3,855 |
|
Electricity Generation, Excluding Cogenerators (Billion Kilowatthours) |
3,369 |
4,821 |
4,231 |
3,893 |
3,883 |
3,878 |
|
Coal |
1,830 |
2,302 |
2,296 |
1,284 |
1,567 |
1,276 |
|
Petroleum |
85 |
23 |
21 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
|
Natural Gas |
370 |
1,488 |
908 |
1,330 |
1,181 |
1,416 |
|
Nuclear Power |
730 |
610 |
595 |
646 |
575 |
617 |
|
Renewables |
355 |
399 |
413 |
624 |
551 |
561 |
|
Electricity Generation by Cogenerators |
303 |
440 |
443 |
607 |
470 |
463 |
|
Prices |
||||||
|
World Oil Price |
17.22 |
22.41 |
22.41 |
22.41 |
22.41 |
22.41 |
|
Natural Gas Wellhead Price |
2.08 |
3.10 |
2.48 |
2.82 |
2.36 |
2.61 |
|
Coal Minemouth Price |
17.13 |
12.93 |
12.78 |
13.47 |
11.51 |
13.45 |
|
Average Delivered Electricity Price |
6.7 |
6.1 |
6.0 |
7.2 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
|
Cumulative Resource Cost for Electricity Generation, 2001-2020 (Billion 1999 Dollars) |
— |
2,031 |
1,751 |
1,913 |
1,682 |
1,811 |
|
Emissionsa |
||||||
|
CO2 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)b |
1,511 |
2,044 |
1,914 |
1,690 |
1,615 |
1,558 |
|
SO2 (Million Tons) |
13.5 |
9.0 |
9.0 |
2.2 |
4.5 |
2.2 |
|
NOx (Million Tons) |
5.4 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
1.7 |
3.2 |
1.6 |
|
Hg (Tons) |
43.4 |
45.2 |
46.2 |
4.3 |
29.4 |
4.3 |
|
Allowance Prices |
||||||
|
CO2 (1999 Dollars per Metric Ton Carbon Equivalent) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
68 |
50 |
50 |
|
SO2 (1999 Dollars per Ton) |
0 |
200 |
184 |
905 |
707 |
670 |
|
NOx (1999 Dollars per Ton)c |
0 |
0 |
0 |
81 |
0 |
0 |
|
Hg (Million 1999 Dollars per Ton) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
468 |
0 |
391 |
| aCO2
emissions are from all energy sectors. Other emissions are from electricity
generators, excluding cogenerators. bCO2 emissions are from energy combustion only and do not include emissions from energy production or industrial processes. cRegional NOx limits are included in the reference case, but the corresponding allowance costs are not included in the table because they are not comparable to a national NOx limit. Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs SCENABS.D080301A, SCENCBS.D080301A, SCENCEM.D081601A, SCENDBS.D092601B, and SCENDEMR.D092701A. |
||||||
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