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Table 12.  Summary of Energy Market Projections in the Reference
and Advanced Technology Cases, 2010 and 2020

Projections

1999

Reference

Advanced Technology Without Fuel Supply Technology Improvements

Advanced Technology With Fuel Supply Technology Improvements

   

2010

Production (Quadrillion Btu)

73.3

  80.9

  79.8

  80.7

  Petroleum

15.1

  14.6

  14.4

  15.0

  Natural Gas

19.2

  24.0

  22.9

  23.0

  Coal

23.1

  26.5

  26.0

  26.1

  Nuclear Power

  7.8

    7.7

    7.7

    8.0

  Renewable Energy

  6.5

    7.9

    8.3

    8.2

Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)

96.3

114.7

111.5

111.7

  Petroleum

37.9

  44.3

  42.4

  42.4

  Natural Gas

22.3

  28.9

  27.7

  27.7

  Coal

21.4

  25.6

  25.1

  25.1

  Nuclear Power

  7.8

    7.7

    7.7

    8.0

  Renewable Energy

  6.5

    7.9

    8.3

    8.2

Change in Primary Energy Intensity
(Annual Percent Change, 1999-2010)

—

-1.6

-1.9

-1.8

Electricity Sales
(Billion Kilowatthours)

3,294

4,133

4,041

4,049

Prices

       

  World Oil Price (1999 Dollars per Barrel)

17.22

21.37

21.37

21.37

  Natural Gas Wellhead Price
 (1999 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

  2.08

2.82

2.52

2.39

  Coal Minemouth Price (1999 Dollars per Short Ton)

17.13

14.19

13.92

12.73

  Average Delivered Electricity Price
 (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

6.7

6.1

5.9

5.9

CO2 Emissionsa
(Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)

1,511

1,821

1,754

1,755

2020

Production (Quadrillion Btu)

73.3

  87.6

  84.0

  86.3

  Petroleum

15.1

  15.2

  14.6

  15.5

  Natural Gas

19.2

  30.1

  27.7

  28.1

  Coal

23.1

  27.1

  26.2

  25.9

  Nuclear Power

  7.8

    6.5

    5.8

    7.2

  Renewable Energy

  6.5

    8.4

    9.1

    9.1

Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)

96.3

127.7

119.3

120.4

  Petroleum

37.9

  50.4

  45.8

  45.7

  Natural Gas

22.3

  35.9

  33.1

  33.2

  Coal

21.4

  26.3

  25.3

  25.1

  Nuclear Power

  7.8

    6.5

    5.8

    7.2

  Renewable Energy

  6.5

    8.4

    9.1

    9.1

Change in Primary Energy Intensity
(Annual Percent Change, 1999-2020)

—

-1.6

-1.9

-1.9

Electricity Sales
(Billion Kilowatthours)

3,294

4,763

4,581

4,610

Prices

  World Oil Price (1999 Dollars per Barrel)

17.22

22.41

22.41

22.41

  Natural Gas Wellhead Price
 (1999 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

2.08

3.10

2.71

2.20

  Coal Minemouth Price (1999 Dollars per Short Ton)

17.13

12.93

12.83

10.76

  Average Delivered Electricity Price
 (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

6.7

6.1

5.8

5.5

CO2 Emissionsa
(Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)

1,511

2,044

1,891

1,884

aCO2 emissions are from energy combustion only and do not include emissions from energy production or industrial processes.
Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs SCENABS.D080301A, SCENBBS.D080301A, and SCENB1BS.D080301A.

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