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Table ES5.  Energy Market Projections in the CEF-JL Moderate and Advanced Cases, 2007

Projections

1999

2007

Reference

CEF-JL Moderate

CEF-JL Advanced

Without Emissions Limits

With Emissions Limits

Without Emissions Limits

With Emissions Limits

Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)

96.3

110.7

108.7

105.3

104.0

102.3

Change in Primary Energy Intensity
(Annual Percent Change, 1999-2007)

—

-1.6

-1.8

-2.1

-2.4

-2.5

Electricity Sales
(Billion Kilowatthours)

3,294

3,926

3,795

3,632

3,688

3,625

Gross Domestic Product
(Billion 1996 Dollars)

8,876

11,605

11,605

11,513

11,605

11,562

Natural Gas Wellhead Price
(1999 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

2.08

2.86

2.54

2.84

2.26

2.77

Average Delivered Electricity Price
(1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

6.7

6.2

5.9

7.5

6.5

7.2

Emissionsa

           

  CO2 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)b

1,511

1,750

1,711

1,547

1,569

1,493

  SO2 (Million Tons)

13.5

10.1

10.1

3.5

10.1

3.6

  NOx (Million Tons)

  5.4

  4.3

  4.2

1.8

  3.7

1.8

  Hg (Tons)

43.4

45.4

44.9

4.3

40.4

4.3

Allowance Prices

           

  CO2 (1999 Dollars per Metric Ton Carbon Equivalent)

0

    0

    0

     72

  50

     58

  SO2 (1999 Dollars per Ton)

0

177

175

       4

116

     46

  NOx (1999 Dollars per Ton)c

0

    0

    0

1,210

    0

1,232

  Hg (Million 1999 Dollars per Ton)

0

    0

    0

   640

    0

   635

aCO2 emissions are from all energy sectors. Other emissions are from electricity generators, excluding cogenerators.
bCO2 emissions are from energy combustion only and do not include emissions from energy production or industrial processes.
cRegional NOx limits are included in the reference case, but the corresponding allowance costs are not included in the table because they are not comparable to a national NOx limit.
Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs SCENABS.D080301A, SCENCBS.D080301A, SCENCEM.D081601A, SCENDBS.D092601B, and SCENDEMR.D092701A.

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