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Table ES4.  Energy Market Projections in the CEF-JL Moderate and Advanced Cases, 2020

Projections

1999

2020

Reference

CEF-JL Moderate

CEF-JL Advanced

Without Emissions Limits

With Emissions Limits

Without Emissions Limits

With Emissions Limits

Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)

           

  Petroleum

37.9

  50.4

  47.9

  47.9

  42.4

  42.5

  Natural Gas

22.3

  35.9

  31.3

  33.8

  30.7

  32.0

  Coal

21.4

  26.3

  25.8

  15.7

  18.3

  15.5

  Nuclear Power

  7.8

    6.5

    6.4

    6.9

    6.1

    6.6

  Renewable Energy

  6.5

    8.4

    8.6

  11.5

  10.8

  11.1

    Total

96.3

127.7

120.2

116.2

108.7

107.9

Change in Primary Energy Intensity
(Annual Percent Change, 1999-2020)

—

-1.6

-1.9

-2.0

-2.4

-2.4

Electricity Sales
(Billion Kilowatthours)

3,294

4,763

4,197

3,910

3,862

3,855

Electricity Generation, Excluding Cogenerators (Billion Kilowatthours)

           

  Coal

1,830

2,302

2,296

1,284

1,567

1,276

  Petroleum

     85

     23

     21

     11

     10

       9

  Natural Gas

   370

1,488

   908

1,330

1,181

1,416

  Nuclear Power

   730

   610

   595

   646

   575

   617

  Renewables

   355

   399

   413

   624

   551

   561

    Total

3,369

4,821

4,231

3,893

3,883

3,878

Electricity Generation by Cogenerators
(Billion Kilowatthours)

   303

   440

   443

   607

   470

   463

Prices

           

  Natural Gas Wellhead Price
 (1999 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

  2.08

  3.10

  2.48

  2.82

  2.36

  2.61

  Coal Minemouth Price
 (1999 Dollars per Short Ton)

17.13

12.93

12.78

13.47

11.51

13.45

  Average Delivered Electricity Price
 (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

6.7

6.1

6.0

7.2

6.6

6.6

Cumulative Resource Cost for Electricity Generation, 2001-2020 (Billion 1999 Dollars)

—

2,031

1,751

1,913

1,682

1,811

Emissionsa

           

  CO2 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)b

1,511

2,044

1,914

1,690

1,615

1,558

  SO2 (Million Tons)

13.5

9.0

9.0

2.2

4.5

2.2

  NOx (Million Tons)

  5.4

4.5

4.3

1.7

3.2

1.6

  Hg (Tons)

43.4

45.2

46.2

4.3

29.4

4.3

Allowance Prices

           

  CO2 (1999 Dollars per Metric Ton Carbon Equivalent)

0

    0

    0

  68

  50

  50

  SO2 (1999 Dollars per Ton)

0

200

184

905

707

670

  NOx (1999 Dollars per Ton)c

0

    0

    0

  81

    0

    0

  Hg (Million 1999 Dollars per Ton)

0

    0

    0

468

    0

391

aCO2 emissions are from all energy sectors. Other emissions are from electricity generators, excluding cogenerators.
bCO2 emissions are from energy combustion only and do not include emissions from energy production or industrial processes.
cRegional NOx limits are included in the reference case, but the corresponding allowance costs are not included in the table because they are not comparable to a national NOx limit.
Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs SCENABS.D080301A, SCENCBS.D080301A, SCENCEM.D081601A, SCENDBS.D092601B, and SCENDEMR.D092701A.

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