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Table ES2.  Energy Market Projections in the Reference and Advanced Technology Cases, 2020

Projections

1999

2020

Reference

Advanced
Technology

Without Emissions Limits

With
Emissions Limits

Without Emissions Limits

With
Emissions Limits

Primary Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)

         

  Petroleum

37.9

  50.4

  50.3

  45.7

  45.9

  Natural Gas

22.3

  35.9

  39.3

  33.2

  36.5

  Coal

21.4

  26.3

  13.3

  25.1

  14.1

  Nuclear Power

  7.8

    6.5

    7.2

    7.2

    7.7

  Renewable Energy

  6.5

    8.4

  10.5

    9.1

  10.6

    Total

96.3

127.7

120.9

120.4

115.2

Change in Primary Energy Intensity
(Annual Percent Change, 1999-2020)

—

-1.6

-1.9

-1.9

-2.1

Electricity Sales
(Billion Kilowatthours)

3,294

4,763

4,320

4,610

4,294

Electricity Generation, Excluding Cogenerators (Billion Kilowatthours)

         

  Coal

1,830

2,302

1,041

2,246

1,146

  Petroleum

     85

     23

     11

     16

     10

  Natural Gas

   370

1,488

2,072

1,331

1,911

  Nuclear Power

   730

   610

   669

   672

   720

  Renewables

   355

   399

   519

   409

   524

    Total

3,369

4,821

4,311

4,674

4,309

Electricity Generation by Cogenerators
(Billion Kilowatthours)

   303

   440

   664

   444

   608

Prices

         

  Natural Gas Wellhead Price
 (1999 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

  2.08

  3.10

  3.72

  2.20

  2.60

  Coal Minemouth Price
 (1999 Dollars per Short Ton)

17.13

12.93

12.61

10.76

10.97

  Average Delivered Electricity Price
 (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

6.7

6.1

8.1

5.5

6.7

Cumulative Resource Cost for Electricity Generation, 2001-2020 (Billion 1999 Dollars)

—

2,031

2,208

1,837

1,979

Emissionsa

         

  CO2 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)b

1,511

2,044

1,757

1,884

1,653

  SO2 (Million Tons)

13.5

9.0

2.2

9.0

2.2

  NOx (Million Tons)

  5.4

4.5

1.4

4.3

1.6

  Hg (Tons)

43.4

45.2

4.3

45.1

4.3

Allowance Prices

         

  CO2 (1999 Dollars per Metric Ton Carbon Equivalent)

0

    0

122

    0

  58

  SO2 (1999 Dollars per Ton)

0

200

221

145

703

  NOx (1999 Dollars per Ton)c

0

    0

    0

    0

    0

  Hg (Million 1999 Dollars per Ton)

0

    0

306

    0

374

aCO2 emissions are from all energy sectors. Other emissions are from electricity generators, excluding cogenerators.
bCO2 emissions are from energy combustion only and do not include emissions from energy production or industrial processes.
cRegional NOx limits are included in the reference case, but the corresponding allowance costs are not included in the table because they are not comparable to a national NOx limit.
Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs SCENABS.D080301A, SCENAEM.D081601A, SCENBBS.D080301A, and SCENBEM. D081701A.

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