Table 35.  Comparison of Key Mercury Emission Reduction Results

Item

EIA

EPA

Reference

Hg 20-Ton (60% Hg Reduction by 2008)

Integrated NOX, SO2, CO2 1990-7%, Hg (90% Hg Reduction by 2008)

Hg MACT 90%

Reference

65% Hg Reduction, Cap and Trade

65% Hg Cap and 50% SO2 by 2010

65% Hg Cap, 50% SO2, 515 Carbon with High Efficiency

65% MACT

2007 Projections

Coal-Fired Capacity (Gigawatts)

319

317

303

317

303

304

303

302

305

NOx Retrofits (Gigawatts)

118

118

150

118

199

192

191

189

192

SO2 Retrofits (Gigawatts)

    7

  10

  10

    8

    4

    8

  79

  51

    5

Hg Retrofits (Gigawatts)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

270

245

250

303

Electricity Generation by Fuel (Billion Kilowatthours)

                 

  Coal

2,220

2,207

1,653

2,212

2,091

2,080

2,043

2,011

2,085

  Natural Gas

   916

   927

1,211

   921

   626

   637

   673

   565

   631

  Nuclear

   738

   738

   742

   738

   613

   613

   613

   613

   613

  Nonhydroelectric Renewables

   119

   119

   228

   120

    61

     61

     61

     61

     61

Natural Gas Wellhead Price
(1999 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

2.88

2.88

2.98

2.88

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Coal Minemouth Price (1999 Dollars per Ton)

14.74

14.86

14.03

14.74

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Electricity Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

6.2

6.3

7.7

6.2

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Electricity Demand (Billion Kilowatthours)

3,936

3,935

3,765

3,936

3,690

3,690

3,690

3,550

3,690

SO2 Emissions (Million Tons)

10.1

10.1

6.4

10.1

10.9

10.5

5.4

6.5

10.5

NOx Emissions (Million Tons)

    4.30

    3.44

  2.04

    3.43

    4.25

    4.25

  4.20

  4.09

    4.25

Hg Emissions (Tons)

45.3

45.1

31.1

45.2

52.0

18.0

16.0

16.3

18.0

CO2 Emissions (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)

662

661

516

662

615

613

609

587

614

CO2 Allowance Price (1999 Dollars per Metric Ton Carbon Equivalent)

    0

    0

     82

    0

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

SO2 Allowance Price (1999 Dollars per Ton)

182

180

   179

185

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

2010 Projections

Coal-Fired Capacity (Gigawatts)

327

323

277

324

303

304

301

284

304

NOx Retrofits (Gigawatts)

119

118

177

119

209

192

190

181

193

SO2 Retrofits (Gigawatts)

    7

  43

  21

  27

    6

    8

  87

  50

    8

Hg Retrofits (Gigawatts)

    0

  72

105

356

    0

271

251

249

302

Electricity Generation by Fuel (Billion Kilowatthours)

                 

  Coal

2,297

2,237

1,113

2,266

2,114

2,073

2,006

1,681

2,099

  Natural Gas

1,085

1,133

1,889

1,115

   759

   799

   866

   949

   774

  Nuclear

   725

   725

   741

   725

   580

   580

   580

   580

   580

  Nonhydroelectric Renewables

   136

   133

   236

   131

     61

     61

     61

     61

     61

Natural Gas Wellhead Price
(1999 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

2.87

2.90

3.66

2.89

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Coal Minemouth Price (1999 Dollars per Ton)

14.08

15.09

14.38

14.25

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Electricity Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

6.1

6.2

8.4

6.2

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Electricity Demand (Billion Kilowatthours)

4,147

4,132

3,851

4,140

3,809

3,809

3,809

3,568

3,809

SO2 Emissions (Million Tons)

9.7

9.7

3.2

9.7

9.7

9.8

4.8

4.8

9.7

NOx Emissions (Million Tons)

  4.34

  3.42

  1.26

  3.44

  4.15

  4.07

  3.94

  3.21

  4.12

Hg Emissions (Tons)

45.6

20.0

5.0

8.0

50.9

17.5

15.1

12.8

17.6

CO2 Emissions (Million Metric Tons Carbon Equivalent)

693

684

434

690

621

612

603

518

617

CO2 Allowance Price (1999 Dollars per Metric Ton Carbon Equivalent)

    0

0

120

    0

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

SO2 Allowance Price (1999 Dollars per Ton)

187

0

    0

114

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Incremental Costs (Billion 1999 Dollars)

0.0

1.7

23.2

5.9

0.0

2.1

5.2

6.3

2.3

NA = not available.

Note: Because Hg retrofits can include both fabric filters and spray coolers, retrofitted capacity may exceed total coal-fired capacity.

Sources: EIA: National Energy Modeling System runs M2BASE.D060801A, M2M6008.D060801A, M2P7B08.D060801A, and M2M9008M.D060801A. EPA: 1999 Integrated Planning Model runs HgIPM9c, Hgtrading1d, Hgtrading2d, Hgtrading3d, and HgMact1d.

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