Table 30. Comparison of Key RPS Results
|
Item |
EIA, Current Study |
EIA, AEO2000 RPS Case |
UCSa |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Reference |
RPS 20% |
Integrated All CO2 1990-7% |
|||
|
2005 Projections |
|||||
|
Coal-Fired Capacity (Gigawatts) |
313 |
312 |
312 |
312 |
285 |
|
Electricity Generation by Fuel (Billion Kilowatthours) |
|||||
|
Coal |
2,159 |
2,129 |
2,066 |
2,094 |
1,945 |
|
Natural Gas |
820 |
759 |
803 |
665 |
799 |
|
Nuclear |
740 |
740 |
740 |
674 |
605 |
|
Nonhydroelectric Renewables |
105 |
199 |
198 |
185 |
193 |
|
Wind |
16 |
27 |
27 |
32 |
20 |
|
Biomass (Including Co-Firing) |
45 |
82 |
82 |
105 |
102 |
|
Geothermal |
18 |
59 |
57 |
19 |
42 |
|
Municipal Solid Waste and Landfill Gas |
25 |
30 |
30 |
29 |
28 |
|
All Solar Sources |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Natural Gas Wellhead Price |
2.96 |
2.91 |
2.80 |
2.30 |
2.86 |
|
Electricity Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour) |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.7 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
|
Electricity Demand (Billion Kilowatthours) |
3,794 |
3,787 |
3,747 |
3,627 |
3,581 |
|
Renewable Credit Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour) |
0 |
4.9 |
3.2 |
NA |
0.5 |
|
SO2 Emissions (Million Tons) |
10.38 |
10.39 |
8.55 |
10.60 |
NA |
|
NOx Emissions (Million Tons) |
4.30 |
4.25 |
3.03 |
5.43 |
NA |
|
Hg Emissions (Tons) |
45.2 |
45.0 |
40.7 |
NA |
NA |
|
Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons) |
644 |
625 |
598 |
626 |
589 |
|
2010 Projections |
|||||
|
Coal-Fired Capacity (Gigawatts) |
327 |
316 |
281 |
308 |
270 |
|
Electricity Generation by Fuel (Billion Kilowatthours) |
|||||
|
Coal |
2,297 |
2,157 |
1,268 |
2,101 |
1,852 |
|
Natural Gas |
1,085 |
919 |
1,512 |
890 |
1,028 |
|
Nuclear |
725 |
725 |
741 |
627 |
561 |
|
Nonhydroelectric Renewables |
136 |
426 |
440 |
301 |
396 |
|
Wind |
18 |
96 |
93 |
80 |
94 |
|
Biomass (Including Co-Firing) |
56 |
190 |
211 |
151 |
208 |
|
Geothermal |
31 |
104 |
99 |
35 |
57 |
|
Municipal Solid Waste and Landfill Gas |
28 |
35 |
36 |
34 |
35 |
|
All Solar Sources |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
|
Natural Gas Wellhead Price |
2.87 |
2.65 |
3.13 |
2.43 |
3.09 |
|
Electricity Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour) |
6.1 |
6.3 |
8.6 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
|
Electricity Demand (Billion Kilowatthours) |
4,147 |
4,117 |
3,830 |
3,883 |
3,856 |
|
Renewable Credit Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour) |
0 |
4.5 |
3.0 |
NA |
1.6 |
|
SO2 Emissions (Million Tons) |
9.70 |
9.70 |
3.60 |
9.70 |
NA |
|
NOx Emissions (Million Tons) |
4.34 |
4.23 |
1.41 |
5.56 |
NA |
|
Hg Emissions (Tons) |
45.6 |
44.1 |
5.0 |
NA |
NA |
|
Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons) |
693 |
639 |
441 |
646 |
582 |
|
aUCS gas price is in dollars per thousand Btu to electricity generators, not national average wellhead price. NA = not available. Sources: EIA, Current Study: National Energy Modeling System, runs M2BASE.D060801A, M2RPS20_x.D070601A, and M2P7B08R_x. D070601A. EIA, AEO2000: National Energy Modeling System, run RPS2KFUL.D100699B. UCS: S. Clemmer, A. Nogee, and M. Brower, A Powerful Opportunity: Making Renewable Electricity the Standard (Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists, January 1999). |
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