Table 30.  Comparison of Key RPS Results

Item

EIA, Current Study

EIA, AEO2000 RPS Case

UCSa

Reference

RPS 20%

Integrated All CO2 1990-7%

2005 Projections

Coal-Fired Capacity (Gigawatts)

313

312

312

312

285

Electricity Generation by Fuel (Billion Kilowatthours)

         

  Coal

2,159

2,129

2,066

2,094

1,945

  Natural Gas

820

759

803

665

799

  Nuclear

740

740

740

674

605

  Nonhydroelectric Renewables

105

199

198

185

193

   Wind

16

27

27

32

20

   Biomass (Including Co-Firing)

45

82

82

105

102

   Geothermal

18

59

57

19

42

   Municipal Solid Waste and Landfill Gas

25

30

30

29

28

   All Solar Sources

1

1

1

1

1

Natural Gas Wellhead Price
(1999 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

2.96

2.91

2.80

2.30

2.86

Electricity Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

6.4

6.4

6.7

6.4

6.4

Electricity Demand (Billion Kilowatthours)

3,794

3,787

3,747

3,627

3,581

Renewable Credit Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

0

4.9

3.2

NA

0.5

SO2 Emissions (Million Tons)

10.38

10.39

8.55

10.60

NA

NOx Emissions (Million Tons)

  4.30

  4.25

3.03

  5.43

NA

Hg Emissions (Tons)

45.2

45.0

40.7

NA

NA

Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons)

644

625

598

626

589

2010 Projections

Coal-Fired Capacity (Gigawatts)

327

316

281

308

270

Electricity Generation by Fuel (Billion Kilowatthours)

         

  Coal

2,297

2,157

1,268

2,101

1,852

  Natural Gas

1,085

919

1,512

890

1,028

  Nuclear

725

725

741

627

561

  Nonhydroelectric Renewables

136

426

440

301

396

    Wind

18

96

93

80

94

   Biomass (Including Co-Firing)

56

190

211

151

208

   Geothermal

31

104

99

35

57

   Municipal Solid Waste and Landfill Gas

28

35

36

34

35

   All Solar Sources

2

2

2

2

3

Natural Gas Wellhead Price
(1999 Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

2.87

2.65

3.13

2.43

3.09

Electricity Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

6.1

6.3

8.6

6.3

6.3

Electricity Demand (Billion Kilowatthours)

4,147

4,117

3,830

3,883

3,856

Renewable Credit Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

0

4.5

3.0

NA

1.6

SO2 Emissions (Million Tons)

9.70

9.70

3.60

9.70

NA

NOx Emissions (Million Tons)

4.34

4.23

1.41

5.56

NA

Hg Emissions (Tons)

45.6

44.1

5.0

NA

NA

Carbon Emissions (Million Metric Tons)

693

639

441

646

582

aUCS gas price is in dollars per thousand Btu to electricity generators, not national average wellhead price.

NA = not available.

Sources: EIA, Current Study: National Energy Modeling System, runs M2BASE.D060801A, M2RPS20_x.D070601A, and M2P7B08R_x. D070601A. EIA, AEO2000: National Energy Modeling System, run RPS2KFUL.D100699B. UCS: S. Clemmer, A. Nogee, and M. Brower, A Powerful Opportunity: Making Renewable Electricity the Standard (Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists, January 1999).

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