Table 26.  Renewable Fuels Market Projections in Four Integrated Cases, 2010 and 2020
(Billion Kilowatthours)

Projection

1999

2010

2020

Reference Case

Integrated Cases

Reference Case

Integrated Cases

All CO2 1990-7%

Moderate Targets

Cost of Service

High Gas Price

All CO2 1990-7%

Moderate Targets

Cost of Service

High Gas Price

Total Electricity Generation

3,706

4,597

4,305

4,347

4,408

4,306

5,294

5,025

5,014

5,064

4,886

Total Electricity Sales

3,312

4,147

3,830

3,870

3,956

3,838

4,788

4,313

4,318

4,453

4,188

Electricity Generation Using Renewables

                     

   Conventional Hydroelectric Power

   319

   306

   310

   310

   311

   311

   304

   309

   309

   310

   310

   Geothermal

     17

     31

     99

     63

     81

     78

     31

   114

     73

     85

     86

   Municipal Solid Waste and Landfill Gas

     27

     28

     36

     36

     36

     36

     32

     40

     40

     40

     40

   Wood and Other Biomass

     38

     56

   211

   127

   104

   105

     63

   467

   257

   198

   207

      Dedicated Biomass

     36

     46

   161

     53

     63

     62

     57

   421

   188

   161

   163

      Biomass Co-firing

       1

     10

     50

     74

     41

     43

       6

     46

     68

     37

     44

   Solar (Thermal and Photovoltaic)

       1

       2

       2

       2

       2

       2

       3

       3

       3

       3

       4

   Wind

       5

     18

     93

     39

     26

     26

     19

   248

     78

     74

     94

      Total Renewables

   406

   441

   750

   577

   559

   558

   453

1,181

   761

   710

   740

      Total Nonhydroelectric Renewables

     87

   136

   440

   267

   249

   247

   149

   872

   452

   400

   430

Average End-Use Electricity Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour)

6.7

6.1

8.6

8.2

7.7

8.6

6.2

8.0

8.2

7.9

9.3

Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs M2BASE.D060801A, M2P7B08R_X.D070601A, M2PHF08R_X.D070901A, M2P7B08C.D060901A, and M2P7B08L.D060901A.

Return to Fuel Market and Macroeconomic Impacts