Table 26. Renewable Fuels Market Projections in Four Integrated Cases,
2010 and 2020
(Billion Kilowatthours)
|
Projection |
1999 |
2010 |
2020 |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Reference Case |
Integrated Cases |
Reference Case |
Integrated Cases |
||||||||
|
All CO2 1990-7% |
Moderate Targets |
Cost of Service |
High Gas Price |
All CO2 1990-7% |
Moderate Targets |
Cost of Service |
High Gas Price |
||||
|
Total Electricity Generation |
3,706 |
4,597 |
4,305 |
4,347 |
4,408 |
4,306 |
5,294 |
5,025 |
5,014 |
5,064 |
4,886 |
|
Total Electricity Sales |
3,312 |
4,147 |
3,830 |
3,870 |
3,956 |
3,838 |
4,788 |
4,313 |
4,318 |
4,453 |
4,188 |
|
Electricity Generation Using Renewables |
|||||||||||
|
Conventional Hydroelectric Power |
319 |
306 |
310 |
310 |
311 |
311 |
304 |
309 |
309 |
310 |
310 |
|
Geothermal |
17 |
31 |
99 |
63 |
81 |
78 |
31 |
114 |
73 |
85 |
86 |
|
Municipal Solid Waste and Landfill Gas |
27 |
28 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
36 |
32 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
|
Wood and Other Biomass |
38 |
56 |
211 |
127 |
104 |
105 |
63 |
467 |
257 |
198 |
207 |
|
Dedicated Biomass |
36 |
46 |
161 |
53 |
63 |
62 |
57 |
421 |
188 |
161 |
163 |
|
Biomass Co-firing |
1 |
10 |
50 |
74 |
41 |
43 |
6 |
46 |
68 |
37 |
44 |
|
Solar (Thermal and Photovoltaic) |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
|
Wind |
5 |
18 |
93 |
39 |
26 |
26 |
19 |
248 |
78 |
74 |
94 |
|
Total Renewables |
406 |
441 |
750 |
577 |
559 |
558 |
453 |
1,181 |
761 |
710 |
740 |
|
Total Nonhydroelectric Renewables |
87 |
136 |
440 |
267 |
249 |
247 |
149 |
872 |
452 |
400 |
430 |
|
Average End-Use Electricity Price (1999 Cents per Kilowatthour) |
6.7 |
6.1 |
8.6 |
8.2 |
7.7 |
8.6 |
6.2 |
8.0 |
8.2 |
7.9 |
9.3 |
| Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs M2BASE.D060801A, M2P7B08R_X.D070601A, M2PHF08R_X.D070901A, M2P7B08C.D060901A, and M2P7B08L.D060901A. | |||||||||||