Table E1. Assumed Annual Rates of Technological Progress in the
Reference
and Rapid and Slow Technology Cases: Costs, Finding Rates,
and Success
Rates for Conventional Sources of Oil and Gas
(Percentage Improvement per Year)
|
Category |
Natural Gas |
Crude Oil |
||||
|
Reference Case |
Rapid Technology Case |
Slow Technology Case |
Reference Case |
Rapid Technology Case |
Slow Technology Case |
|
|
Costs |
||||||
|
Drilling |
||||||
|
Onshore |
1.29 |
1.94 |
0.65 |
1.29 |
1.94 |
0.65 |
|
Offshore |
2.02 |
3.03 |
1.01 |
2.02 |
3.03 |
1.01 |
|
Alaska |
1.00 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
1.00 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
|
Lease Equipment |
||||||
|
Onshore |
0.59 |
0.89 |
0.30 |
0.59 |
0.89 |
0.30 |
|
Offshore |
1.40 |
2.10 |
0.70 |
1.40 |
2.10 |
0.70 |
|
Alaska |
1.00 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
1.00 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
|
Operating |
||||||
|
Onshore |
0.54 |
0.81 |
0.27 |
0.54 |
0.81 |
0.27 |
|
Offshore |
0.60 |
0.90 |
0.30 |
0.60 |
0.90 |
0.30 |
|
Alaska |
1.00 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
1.00 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
|
Finding Rates |
||||||
|
New Field Wildcats |
||||||
|
Onshore |
||||||
|
Shallow |
||||||
|
Northeast |
0.50 |
0.75 |
0.25 |
0.50 |
0.75 |
0.25 |
|
Gulf Coast |
2.00 |
3.00 |
1.00 |
2.00 |
3.00 |
1.00 |
|
Mid Continent |
3.00 |
4.50 |
1.50 |
2.00 |
3.00 |
1.00 |
|
Southwest |
3.00 |
4.50 |
1.50 |
4.00 |
6.00 |
2.00 |
|
Rocky Mountain |
2.00 |
3.00 |
1.00 |
2.00 |
3.00 |
1.00 |
|
West Coast |
1.00 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
1.00 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
|
Deep |
||||||
|
Northeast |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Gulf Coast |
1.00 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Mid Continent |
1.00 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Southwest |
6.00 |
9.00 |
3.00 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Rocky Mountain |
1.00 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
West Coast |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Offshore |
6.00 |
9.00 |
3.00 |
2.00 |
3.00 |
1.00 |
|
Other Exploratory |
||||||
|
Onshore |
||||||
|
Shallow |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
2.88 |
4.32 |
1.44 |
|
Deep |
4.72 |
7.08 |
2.36 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Offshore |
4.14 |
6.21 |
2.07 |
4.14 |
6.21 |
2.07 |
|
Developmental |
||||||
|
Onshore |
||||||
|
Shallow |
0.27 |
0.41 |
0.14 |
2.50 |
3.75 |
1.25 |
|
Deep |
1.61 |
2.42 |
0.81 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Offshore |
4.14 |
6.21 |
2.07 |
4.14 |
6.21 |
2.07 |
|
Success Rate |
||||||
|
Exploratory |
0.50 |
0.75 |
0.25 |
0.50 |
0.75 |
0.25 |
|
Developmental |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
|
Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. |
||||||
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File last modified: August 18, 2000
URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/depletion/table_e1.html
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