Table A1. National Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sales, Generation, Consumption, Capability, Emissions, Prices, and Expenditures Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
Electricity Sales  
Residential 1,135 1,148 1,229 1,236 1,325 1,327 1,434 1,439
Commercial 1,073 1,069 1,150 1,141 1,236 1,223 1,321 1,312
Industrial 1,037 1,039 1,104 1,101 1,189 1,182 1,255 1,251
Transportation 17 18 29 31 43 44 53 55
Total 3,261 3,274 3,512 3,508 3,794 3,776 4,065 4,057
Generation  
Electric Generator1  
Coal 1,841 1,992 1,960 2,037 2,034 2,056 2,207 2,192
Natural Gas 365 372 604 619 930 963 1,193 1,259
Petroleum 125 84 62 42 37 25 30 21
Hydro 310 324 311 325 312 325 312 325
Nuclear 678 664 659 640 580 560 427 413
Geothermal 16 14 16 16 18 18 19 20
Municipal Solid Waste 23 24 24 25 26 27 27 28
Biomass2 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 11
Solar Thermal 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Wind 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
Total 3,375 3,489 3,655 3,724 3,957 3,994 4,237 4,278
Renewable Cogenerators3 41 48 44 52 49 57 53 60
Electricity Imports (Firm) 56 24 28 20 11 20 3 19
Electric Generator Consumption  
Coal 18.90 20.83 20.19 21.39 20.89 21.55 22.48 22.74
Natural Gas 3.62 3.71 5.23 5.33 7.12 7.49 8.68 9.27
Petroleum 1.31 0.88 0.64 0.44 0.40 0.26 0.32 0.22
Total 23.83 25.42 26.06 27.16 28.41 29.30 31.48 32.22
Capability (Gigawatts)4  
Combined Cycle 34.47 35.28 70.15 74.34 132.83 122.34 190.18 169.62
Coal 310.27 310.32 300.08 303.10 301.49 297.96 314.50 306.65
Combustion Turbines 71.67 86.65 108.20 116.15 146.77 148.98 170.60 188.69
Fuel Cells 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00
Hydro 79.01 79.08 79.34 79.39 79.40 79.44 79.40 79.44
Nuclear 94.84 95.48 88.96 88.93 76.65 75.14 56.37 55.57
Other Fossil Fuel 138.83 138.88 98.52 105.64 50.59 94.25 45.65 91.60
Pumped Storage 21.52 21.52 21.52 21.52 21.52 21.52 21.52 21.52
Geothermal 3.06 3.06 2.81 3.09 2.98 3.20 3.19 3.27
Municipal Solid Waste 3.68 3.79 3.88 4.00 4.13 4.24 4.27 4.41
Biomass2 2.09 2.09 2.02 2.30 2.00 2.37 2.00 2.37
Solar Thermal 0.37 0.37 0.42 0.42 0.44 0.44 0.48 0.48
Wind 2.80 2.80 3.24 3.24 3.40 3.39 3.49 3.39
Solar Photovoltaic 0.04 0.04 0.14 0.14 0.30 0.30 0.46 0.46
Total 762.66 779.37 779.28 802.27 822.51 853.59 892.11 927.48
Emissions  
Carbon (Million Metric Tons) 566 595 608 623 648 655 710 711
SO2 (Thousand Short Tons) 10,223 11,380 9,774 10,390 8,997 8,950 9,067 9,090
 
Average Electricity Price
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 		66.5 65.6 65.8 65.6 63.3 63.6 60.0 59.1
Electricity Expenditures
(Billion 1997 Dollars)		 216.90 214.78 231.00 230.12 240.10 240.13 243.80 239.78

1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
 2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
 3Only includes renewable generation from traditional cogenerators.
 4Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
Btu = British thermal unit. SO2 = sulfur dioxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.

Table A2. East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement (ECAR) Regional Electricity Results:
CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
 
Electricity Demand 515 507 546 535 583 570 617 606
 
Generation1  
Coal 471 491 491 504 476 500 506 511
Natural Gas 18 15 31 30 105 92 123 127
Petroleum 4 1 4 1 4 1 4 1
Hydro 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Nuclear 52 50 54 51 29 29 16 16
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Municipal Solid Waste 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Biomass2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 551 563 585 592 620 628 655 661
 
Capability (Gigawatts)3  
Combined Cycle 2.17 2.17 4.29 3.19 13.11 3.19 18.90 3.24
Coal 84.51 84.67 76.63 77.60 73.20 70.48 73.20 69.69
Combustion Turbines 7.76 10.84 17.25 15.86 25.83 32.72 28.92 42.44
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 1.47 1.50 1.47 1.50 1.47 1.50 1.47 1.50
Nuclear 7.59 7.59 7.59 7.59 4.09 4.09 1.99 1.99
Other Fossil Fuel 3.66 3.66 2.33 3.66 2.33 3.66 2.33 3.66
Pumped Storage 3.58 4.75 3.58 4.75 3.58 4.75 3.58 4.75
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Municipal Solid Waste 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.16
Biomass2 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Solar Thermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wind 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Solar Photovoltaic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 111.10 115.54 113.51 114.51 124.00 120.77 130.79 127.67
 
Emissions  
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 1,051 1,104 811 859 784 874 831 914
 
Average Electricity Price  
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 57.3 60.1 57.0 61.4 53.7 58.5 49.9 52.4
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.
 

Table A3. Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) Regional Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
 
Electricity Demand 231 242 251 262 274 284 296 308
 
Generation1  
Coal 114 114 117 115 117 115 118 116
Natural Gas 89 103 106 121 130 145 150 168
Petroleum 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 1
Hydro 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Nuclear 35 34 36 36 36 36 36 36
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Municipal Solid Waste 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Biomass2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 242 254 262 275 286 299 308 323
 
Capability (Gigawatts)3  
Combined Cycle 3.29 3.41 12.50 9.52 19.50 18.26 22.96 22.40
Coal 15.77 15.58 16.10 15.58 16.10 15.58 16.24 15.66
Combustion Turbines 4.55 7.09 7.05 8.88 8.32 10.07 11.81 13.60
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 0.52 0.51 0.52 0.51 0.52 0.51 0.52 0.51
Nuclear 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80 4.80
Other Fossil Fuel 29.77 29.82 22.52 21.66 14.97 17.29 12.34 15.91
Pumped Storage 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00
Municipal Solid Waste 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.13
Biomass2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Solar Thermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wind 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.12 0.19 0.12 0.19
Solar Photovoltaic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03
Total 58.94 61.46 63.76 61.23 64.45 66.83 68.94 73.23
 
Emissions  
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 310 332 257 314 240 297 239 297
 
Average Electricity Price  
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 60.9 61.9 61.5 60.2 59.3 58.5 55.1 53.0
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.
 

Table A4. Mid-Atlantic Area Council (MAAC) Regional Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
 
Electricity Demand 248 246 264 261 281 278 297 296
 
Generation1  
Coal 127 122 124 120 110 116 117 121
Natural Gas 18 15 44 42 90 78 135 123
Petroleum 10 4 5 2 4 2 4 2
Hydro 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5
Nuclear 89 91 90 91 82 78 47 44
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Municipal Solid Waste 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Biomass2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 254 242 272 266 295 285 311 300
 
Capability (Gigawatts)3  
Combined Cycle 3.70 3.93 7.31 7.13 14.53 11.93 22.92 18.08
Coal 20.30 19.40 19.95 19.31 16.97 19.17 16.84 19.19
Combustion Turbines 9.39 9.63 12.05 12.85 14.83 12.89 17.55 15.26
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 1.23 1.20 1.23 1.20 1.23 1.20 1.23 1.20
Nuclear 12.19 12.83 12.19 12.83 9.97 10.00 6.23 6.25
Other Fossil Fuel 8.96 8.96 3.95 5.02 2.37 4.76 2.37 4.76
Pumped Storage 1.67 1.34 1.67 1.34 1.67 1.34 1.67 1.34
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Municipal Solid Waste 0.77 0.81 0.77 0.81 0.77 0.81 0.77 0.81
Biomass2 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06
Solar Thermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wind 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Solar Photovoltaic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 58.26 58.17 59.17 60.55 62.39 62.16 69.62 66.96
 
Emissions  
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 300 271 201 220 169 223 178 243
 
Average Electricity Price  
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 82.0 79.6 78.9 78.6 74.6 75.2 72.2 70.4
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.

Table A5. Mid-America Interconnected Network (MAIN) Regional Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
 
Electricity Demand 222 235 235 247 250 261 264 277
 
Generation1  
Coal 149 160 150 166 162 175 172 186
Natural Gas 3 3 6 6 12 13 23 27
Petroleum 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Hydro 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Nuclear 87 83 89 81 85 78 72 71
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Municipal Solid Waste 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Biomass2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 244 250 250 257 264 271 272 289
 
Capability (Gigawatts)3  
Combined Cycle 0.29 0.29 1.24 0.90 2.77 2.43 4.88 5.55
Coal 27.81 27.66 25.11 26.41 25.11 26.41 25.29 26.57
Combustion Turbines 6.00 11.22 13.73 17.82 17.14 19.72 18.94 21.74
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.69
Nuclear 13.11 12.72 13.11 11.57 12.34 10.80 9.51 9.51
Other Fossil Fuel 4.76 4.76 2.46 3.18 0.29 3.18 0.29 3.18
Pumped Storage 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.56
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Municipal Solid Waste 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09
Biomass2 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.06   0.06 0.06 0.06
Solar Thermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00   0.00
Wind 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Solar Photovoltaic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 53.35 58.03 57.05 61.30 59.07 63.96 60.34 67.97
 
Emissions  
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 320 352 235 285 254 302 267 325
 
Average Electricity Price  
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 65.7 65.4 66.8 66.7 62.3 63.5 56.9 57.2
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.

Table A6. Mid-Continent Area Power Pool (MAPP) Regional Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
 
Electricity Demand 141 148 150 157 161 166 171 176
 
Generation1  
Coal 111 133 125 143 131 145 135 147
Natural Gas 2 2 4 4 10 12 25 19
Petroleum 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
Hydro 12 17 12 17 12 17 12 17
Nuclear 24 25 12 12 11 11 8 8
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Municipal Solid Waste 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2
Biomass2 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1
Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wind 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 153 181 158 180 170 190 185 196
 
Capability (Gigawatts)3  
Combined Cycle 0.42 0.42 0.75 0.58 1.57 0.92 4.38 0.92
Coal 21.68 20.78 20.29 20.54 20.26 20.51 20.29 20.28
Combustion Turbines 4.97 6.42 5.69 9.70 7.82 11.62 8.87 17.86
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 3.41 3.41 3.41 3.41 3.41 3.41 3.41 3.41
Nuclear 3.35 3.74 1.57 1.57 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03
Other Fossil Fuel 0.61 0.61   0.60 0.30 0.60 0.30 0.60
Pumped Storage 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Municipal Solid Waste 0.20 0.20 0.23 0.23 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.29
Biomass2 0.11 0.11 0.21 0.23 0.13 0.23 0.13 0.23
Solar Thermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wind 0.52 0.52 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68
Solar Photovoltaic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 35.27 36.21 33.13 37.54 35.46 39.26 39.37 45.29
 
Emissions  
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 235 302 262 327 277 337 284 347
 
Average Electricity Price  
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 56.1 53.7 55.1 52.4 53.8 51.7 50.2 49.7
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.

Table A7. Northeast Power Coordinating Council/New England (NE) Regional Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
 
Electricity Demand 115 115 121 122 128 128 135 134
 
Generation1  
Coal 20 20 20 20 19 15 18 14
Natural Gas 24 21 50 48 62 75 82 88
Petroleum 25 17 8 6 8 2 2 1
Hydro 7 9 7 9 7 9 7 9
Nuclear 29 29 26 25 21 21 17 17
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Municipal Solid Waste 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5
Biomass2 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4
Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wind 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 114 105 120 117 127 132 136 140
 
Capability (Gigawatts)3  
Combined Cycle 2.13 2.21 5.60 5.91 7.91 9.99 11.10 11.97
Coal 3.05 3.05 2.84 3.05 2.84 3.05 2.84 3.05
Combustion Turbines 1.78 1.84 1.78 2.09 2.08 2.06 2.69 2.22
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.02
Nuclear 4.32 4.32 2.78 3.65 2.78 2.78 2.28 2.28
Other Fossil Fuel 8.14 8.14 7.12 5.73 1.88 3.31 1.11 3.31
Pumped Storage 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.66
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Municipal Solid Waste 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.69
Biomass2 0.76 0.75 0.54 0.81 0.60 0.88 0.60 0.88
Solar Thermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wind 0.02 0.02 0.12 0.12 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
Solar Photovoltaic 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04
Total 24.49 24.63 25.11 25.70 22.75 26.72 25.28 28.39
 
Emissions  
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 76 73 44 62 39 59 29 61
 
Average Electricity Price  
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 99.9 89.4 97.8 84.4 90.1 82.8 82.6 78.2
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.
 

Table A8. Northeast Power Coordinating Council/New York (NY) Regional Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
 
Electricity Demand 140 145 148 152 157 160 164 168
 
Generation1  
Coal 12 34 20 34 25 29 27 33
Natural Gas 44 41 61 59 82 90 95 106
Petroleum 26 18 13 6 2 1 2 1
Hydro 29 20 31 21 32 21 32 21
Nuclear 34 33 27 27 14 14 8 8
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Municipal Solid Waste 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Biomass2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 147 148 155 150 157 158 166 172
 
Capability (Gigawatts)3  
Combined Cycle 4.62 4.62 5.77 7.34 11.30 12.39 15.20 14.74
Coal 3.98 4.92 3.98 4.92 3.82 4.92 3.68 4.92
Combustion Turbines 4.10 4.10 4.09 4.09 4.09 4.09 4.09 5.27
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 4.63 4.63 4.91 4.91 4.96 4.96 4.96 4.96
Nuclear 4.91 4.91 3.11 3.11 2.03 2.03 1.10 1.09
Other Fossil Fuel 12.39 12.39 8.40 6.18 1.21 3.11 1.21 3.11
Pumped Storage 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Municipal Solid Waste 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33
Biomass2 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Solar Thermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wind 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Solar Photovoltaic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 36.28 37.23 31.92 32.21 29.06 33.16 31.90 35.77
 
Emissions  
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 56 99 54 78 42 72 44 84
 
Average Electricity Price  
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 109.7 103.1 105.8 101.9 102.8 99.7 96.8 93.2
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.

Table A9. Southeastern Electric Reliability Council/Florida (FL) Regional Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
 
Electricity Demand 176 175 193 191 211 209 230 228
 
Generation1  
Coal 64 73 86 73 107 74 135 79
Natural Gas 44 30 66 54 82 88 84 117
Petroleum 34 22 9 15 4 12 3 9
Hydro 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nuclear 29 28 29 27 22 21 12 11
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Municipal Solid Waste 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Biomass2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 175 158 194 175 219 198 239 221
 
Capability (Gigawatts)3  
Combined Cycle 5.59 5.12 11.04 7.82 14.48 12.93 16.65 16.74
Coal 9.94 10.09 13.18 10.09 15.71 10.10 19.57 10.59
Combustion Turbines 5.88 5.54 8.95 6.38 11.66 7.11 12.35 9.78
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Nuclear 3.82 3.82 3.82 3.82 3.01 3.01 1.68 1.68
Other Fossil Fuel 13.32 13.32 8.59 12.35 4.17 11.89 4.17 11.63
Pumped Storage 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Municipal Solid Waste 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63
Biomass2 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16
Solar Thermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wind 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Solar Photovoltaic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 39.38 38.73 46.42 41.31 49.87 45.87 55.26 51.26
 
Emissions  
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 226 222 166 224 148 225 144 232
 
Average Electricity Price  
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 72.0 68.4 72.5 68.0 71.1 66.9 68.5 62.9
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.

Table A10. Southeastern Electric Reliability Council (SERC) Regional Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
Electricity Demand 581 567 631 612 687 665 741 720
Generation1
Coal 378 419 412 430 426 437 454 482
Natural Gas 10 8 27 41 87 92 178 172
Petroleum 4 3 4 2 5 3 5 2
Hydro 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38
Nuclear 187 182 183 179 166 161 106 98
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Municipal Solid Waste 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 3
Biomass2 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 618 652 666 693 723 734 783 795
Capability (Gigawatts)3
Combined Cycle 3.01 3.00 5.03 7.88 15.31 14.40 31.82 30.24
Coal 65.78 65.63 62.71 65.63 62.64 65.40 63.24 67.17
Combustion Turbines 13.34 13.16 20.51 19.51 27.69 25.18 31.87 30.47
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 11.87 11.87 11.93 11.93 11.93 11.93 11.93 11.93
Nuclear 25.47 25.58 24.71 24.83 21.34 21.46 14.27 13.56
Other Fossil Fuel 3.15 3.15 2.77 3.09 2.72 2.98 2.57 2.89
Pumped Storage 7.52 6.68 7.52 6.68 7.52 6.68 7.52 6.68
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Municipal Solid Waste 0.29 0.37 0.34 0.41 0.39 0.46 0.42 0.49
Biomass2 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17
Solar Thermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wind 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Solar Photovoltaic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 130.59 129.61 135.67 140.12 149.70 148.65 163.79 163.61
Emissions
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 768 881 618 736 639 764 674 838
Average Electricity Price
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 57.2 56.4 55.9 58.1 54.9 56.7 53.8 54.0
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.

Table A11. Southwest Power Pool (SPP) Regional Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
 
Electricity Demand 280 284 304 305 330 329 354 355
 
Generation1  
Coal 186 202 191 203 196 204 201 207
Natural Gas 40 31 70 70 91 86 106 109
Petroleum 4 4 1 0 3 0 3 1
Hydro 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 7
Nuclear 46 44 46 44 46 44 37 35
Geothermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Municipal Solid Waste 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
Biomass2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 283 288 318 324 344 342 357 360
 
Capability (Gigawatts)3  
Combined Cycle 2.07 2.07 4.67 8.16 9.99 11.45 13.85 15.54
Coal 27.80 27.98 28.36 28.60 28.31 28.61 28.84 28.96
Combustion Turbines 5.22 5.15 7.81 7.29 15.33 8.90 19.31 11.86
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 2.81 2.84 2.81 2.84 2.81 2.84 2.81 2.84
Nuclear 6.05 5.93 6.05 5.93 6.05 5.93 4.27 4.16
Other Fossil Fuel 30.27 30.27 21.87 22.92 11.06 22.81 11.06 22.56
Pumped Storage 0.51 0.50 0.51 0.50 0.51 0.50 0.51 0.50
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Municipal Solid Waste 0.07 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.15
Biomass2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Solar Thermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wind 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Solar Photovoltaic 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.05
Total 74.78 74.82 72.16 76.35 74.20 81.19 80.85 86.62
 
Emissions  
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 426 463 426 441 412 445 403 443
 
Average Electricity Price  
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 58.8 54.1 58.0 55.3 57.4 55.5 54.2 51.3
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.

Table A12. Southwest Systems Coordinating Council/Rocky Mountain Power Area and Arizona (RA) 
Regional Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
 
Electricity Demand 133 116 151 131 167 145 184 161
 
Generation1  
Coal 102 98 103 99 109 107 118 118
Natural Gas 7 27 13 48 28 58 35 48
Petroleum 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0
Hydro 12 13 12 13 12 13 12 13
Nuclear 28 21 28 22 28 22 28 22
Geothermal 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Municipal Solid Waste 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Biomass2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 153 163 162 185 181 204 199 205
 
Capability (Gigawatts)3  
Combined Cycle 1.36 1.93 1.51 5.92 3.91 8.51 5.25 8.99
Coal 14.15 13.25 14.10 13.40 14.78 14.47 16.23 16.00
Combustion Turbines 2.58 3.67 3.78 3.87 5.85 4.13 6.94 4.41
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 3.98 3.98 3.98 3.98 3.98 3.98 3.98 3.98
Nuclear 3.81 2.99 3.81 2.99 3.81 2.99 3.81 2.99
Other Fossil Fuel 2.59 2.59 2.25 2.22 2.25 2.22 2.25 2.22
Pumped Storage 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72
Geothermal 0.35 0.31 0.35 0.32 0.36 0.32 0.37 0.34
Municipal Solid Waste 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09
Biomass2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Solar Thermal 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07
Wind 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.06
Solar Photovoltaic 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.08
Total 29.69 29.57 30.72 33.64 35.93 37.60 39.86 39.95
 
Emissions  
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 223 230 230 231 228 233 227 229
 
Average Electricity Price  
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 66.2 68.0 64.3 67.7 65.2 67.1 63.3 63.1
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.

Table A13. Western Systems Coordinating Council/Northwest Power Pool (NWP)
Regional Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
 
Electricity Demand 233 230 254 252 277 276 300 300
 
Generation1  
Coal 77 83 81 85 82 89 88 98
Natural Gas 11 18 14 49 24 64 45 87
Petroleum 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
Hydro 153 164 152 163 152 163 152 163
Nuclear 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
Geothermal 1 1 1 3 3 5 4 8
Municipal Solid Waste 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Biomass2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Solar Thermal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 251 274 258 310 271 332 301 367
 
Capability (Gigawatts)3  
Combined Cycle 1.88 2.21 1.13 5.77 2.74 8.39 5.87 11.98
Coal 11.37 11.58 11.37 11.88 11.57 12.38 12.40 13.55
Combustion Turbines 1.29 3.17 0.90 3.18 0.91 3.18 0.73 2.95
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 35.03 35.05 35.03 35.03 35.03 35.03 35.03 35.03
Nuclear 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
Other Fossil Fuel 0.72 0.72 0.42 0.72 0.42 0.23 0.42 0.23
Pumped Storage 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31
Geothermal 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.45 0.45 0.71 0.74 0.97
Municipal Solid Waste 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.19
Biomass2 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
Solar Thermal 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
Wind 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Solar Photovoltaic 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.10 0.14
Total 52.20 54.66 50.80 58.81 52.94 61.78 57.10 66.65
 
Emissions  
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 157 171 167 184 164 187 164 194
 
Average Electricity Price  
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 41.5 43.5 39.6 45.0 38.8 44.4 37.3 42.4
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.

Table A14. Western Systems Coordinating Council/California-Southern Nevada Power (CNV)
Regional Electricity Results: CECA Reference Cases
(Billion Kilowatthours, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Demand, Generation, Capability, Emissions, and Prices Projections
2000 2005 2010 2015
DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS		 DOE/
POEMS		 EIA/
NEMS
 
Electricity Demand 247 241 267 262 290 284 313 307
 
Generation1  
Coal 30 42 40 45 75 51 117 81
Natural Gas 55 58 111 48 128 71 111 68
Petroleum 10 11 11 6 3 1 2 0
Hydro 40 45 40 45 40 45 40 45
Nuclear 32 38 32 38 32 38 32 38
Geothermal 12 10 12 10 12 10 12 9
Municipal Solid Waste 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Biomass2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Solar Thermal 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Wind 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
Solar Photovoltaic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 189 213 256 201 300 225 324 252
 
Capability (Gigawatts)3  
Combined Cycle 3.96 3.91 9.32 4.20 15.71 7.56 16.39 9.21
Coal 4.16 5.73 5.47 6.10 10.19 6.89 15.84 11.03
Combustion Turbines 4.82 4.83 4.63 4.61 5.22 7.33 6.53 10.83
Fuel Cells 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hydro 11.33 11.33 11.33 11.33 11.33 11.33 11.33 11.33
Nuclear 4.31 5.13 4.31 5.13 4.31 5.13 4.31 5.13
Other Fossil Fuel 20.48 20.48 15.54 18.31 6.62 18.21 5.23 17.53
Pumped Storage 3.73 3.73 3.73 3.73 3.73 3.73 3.73 3.73
Geothermal 2.51 2.54 2.25 2.32 2.17 2.17 2.08 1.97
Municipal Solid Waste 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.36 0.37 0.36 0.37 0.36
Biomass2 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37
Solar Thermal 0.35 0.35 0.36 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.38
Wind 1.95 1.96 2.11 2.13 2.20 2.13 2.28 2.13
Solar Photovoltaic 0.02 0.02 0.07 0.04 0.11 0.07 0.16 0.12
Total 58.34 60.72 59.85 58.99 62.70 65.64 69.01 74.12
 
Emissions  
NOx (Thousand Short Tons) 78 99 77 95 61 103 57 104
 
Average Electricity Price  
(1997 Mills per Kilowatthour) 92.6 97.3 96.4 93.4 91.6 88.7 86.4 82.6
1Excludes traditional cogenerators and firm imports.
2Includes co-firing as well as direct combustion.
3Includes nontraditional cogenerators.
NOx = Nitrogen oxide.
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act, DOE/PO-0059 (Washington, DC, May 1999), and Energy Information Administration, National Energy Modeling System run CECABAS1.D082799A.

 

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File last modified: September 28, 1999

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