Analysis of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards for Light Trucks and Increased Alternative Fuel Use

Table 9. Projected Macroeconomic Impacts of S. 804 (2010-2020) Printer Friendly Version Projection 2010 2015 2020 Real Gross Domestic Product (Billion 1996 Dollars) AEO 2002 Revised Reference 12309 14399 16530 S. 804 12292 14379 16519 S. 804 Advanced Date 12282 14380 16527 Real Gross Domestic Product (Percent Change from Revised Reference) S. 804 -0.14 -0.14 -0.07 S. 804 Advanced Date -0.22 -0.13 -0.02 Real Consumption Expenditures (Billion 1996 Dollars) AEO 2002 Revised Reference 8255 9547 10999 S. 804 8241 9532 10988 S. 804 Advanced Date 8235 9532 10994 Real Consumption Expenditures (Percent Change from Revised Reference) S. 804 -0.16 -0.16 -0.10 S. 804 Advanced Date -0.24 -0.16 -0.05 Real Investment Expenditures (Billion 1996 Dollars) AEO 2002 Revised Reference 2517 3254 3957 S. 804 2515 3254 3962 S. 804 Advanced Date 2512 3255 3961 Real Investment Expenditures (Percent Change from Revised Reference) S. 804 -0.08 0.01 0.15 S. 804 Advanced Date -0.17 0.05 0.11 Real Trade Balance (Billion 1996 Dollars) AEO 2002 Revised Reference -296 -256 -347 S. 804 -298 -264 -356 S. 804 Advanced Date -300 -264 -352 Real Trade Balance (Change from Revised Reference) S. 804 -2.6 -8.6 -8.9 S. 804 Advanced Date -4.3 -8.8 -4.1 Consumer Price Index (Index, 1982-4=100) AEO 2002 Revised Reference 227.5 263.6 314.1 S. 804 227.3 262.8 312.0 S. 804 Advanced Date 227.4 262.6 311.6 Consumer Price Index (Percent Change from Revised Reference) S. 804 -0.07 -0.31 -0.68 S. 804 Advanced Date -0.03 -0.39 -0.79 Sales of Light Vehicles (thousands of units) AEO 2002 Revised Reference 17337 17818 18283 S. 804 17091 17388 17830 S. 804 Advanced Date 16974 17392 17833 Sales of Light Duty Vehicles (Change from Revised Reference) S. 804 -247 -430 -453 S. 804 Advanced Date -363 -426 -450 Non-agricultural Employment (thousands employed) AEO 2002 Revised Reference 145283 150401 154698 S. 804 145069 150168 154507 S. 804 Advanced Date 144957 150179 154588 Non-agricultural Employment (Change from Revised Reference) S. 804 -214 -233 -192 S. 804 Advanced Date -325 -222 -111

Table 10. Projected Macroeconomic Impacts of S. 517 (2010-2020) Printer Friendly Version Projection 2010 2015 2020 Real Gross Domestic Product (Billion 1996 Dollars) AEO 2002 Revised Reference 12309 14399 16530 S. 517 12292 14356 16505 Real Gross Domestic Product (Percent Change from Revised Reference) S. 517 -0.14 -0.30 -0.15 Real Consumption Expenditures (Billion 1996 Dollars) AEO 2002 Revised Reference 8255 9547 10999 S. 517 8242 9517 10980 Real Consumption Expenditures (Percent Change from Revised Reference) S. 517 -0.16 -0.31 -0.18 Real Investment Expenditures (Billion 1996 Dollars) AEO 2002 Revised Reference 2517 3254 3957 S. 517 2514 3248 3961 Real Investment Expenditures (Percent Change from Revised Reference) S. 517 -0.11 0.19 0.11 Real Trade Balance (Billion 1996 Dollars) AEO 2002 Revised Reference -296 -256 -347 S. 517 -298 -269 -363 Real Trade Balance (Change from Revised Reference) S. 517 -2.7 -13.1 -15.2 Consumer Price Index (Index, 1982-4=100) AEO 2002 Revised Reference 227.5 263.6 314.1 S. 517 227.5 263.3 312.0 Consumer Price Index (Percent Change from Revised Reference) S. 517 -0.01 -0.14 -0.68 Sales of Light Vehicles (thousands of units) AEO 2002 Revised Reference 17337 17818 18283 S. 517 17107 17214 17678 Sales of Light Duty Vehicles (Change from Revised Reference) S. 517 -230 -604 -604 Non-agricultural Employment (thousands employed) AEO 2002 Revised Reference 145283 150401 154698 S. 517 145076 149948 154405 Non-agricultural Employment (Change from Revised Reference) S. 517 -207 -453 -293

Table 11. Present Discounted Values of Changes in GDP and Consumption (Billion 1996 Dollars discounted at 7 Percent from 2003-2020) Printer Friendly Version Variable Present Value of Changes % of Total (2003-2020) (2003-2020) Real GDP, S. 804 Case -134 -0.11 Real GDP, S. 804 Advanced Date -141 -0.11 Real GDP, S. 517 -170 -0.14 Real Consumption, S. 804 -105 -0.13 Real Consumption, S. 804 Advanced Date -111 -0.13 Real Consumption, S. 517 -123 -0.15

Table 12. Summary of Proposed Alternative Fuels Legislation Printer Friendly Version S. 1766 H.R. 4 Section Requirements Section Requirements 811 Requires dual fuel vehicles in Federal fleet to use alternative fuels for 75 percent of fuel by 2005. Includes enclosed 3-wheel electric vehicles as AFVs 205 206 Increases AFVs to 85 percent of Federal fleet purchases by 2006. Includes hybrid vehicles as an AFV Eliminates petroleum fuel consumption in the Federal fleet by the end of FY2009 812 Single passenger AFVs allowed in HOV lanes 151 Single passenger AFVs and hybrid vehicles allowed in HOV lanes 814 Provides grants for demonstration and commercial application of alternative fuel school buses and ultra-low sulfur diesel buses to replace pre-1977 buses and pre-1991 diesel buses 2142 Provides grants for demonstration and commercial application of alternative fuel school buses and ultra-low sulfur diesel buses 815 Establishes cooperative agreements to develop fuel cell power school buses 2143 Establishes cooperative agreements to develop fuel cell power school buses 816 Authorizes $260 million over 2003-2006 for 814 and 815. Specifies maximum of $25 million for fuel cell school buses 2144 Authorizes $300 million over 2002-2006 for 2142 and 2143. Specifies maximum of $25 million for fuel cell school buses

Table 13. Estimated Consumption of Transportation Fuels, 1999 (million gasoline-equivalent gallons) Printer Friendly Version Federal Agencies State and Local Agencies Private Total US Alternative Fuels 5.8 78.0 255.5 339.3 Motor Gasoline 275.9 1,878.8 124,944 127,183

Table 14. Estimated Number of Alternative Fuel Vehicles, 1999 Printer Friendly Version Dedicated Non-Dedicated Total Flexible Fuel Federal Agencies 1,731 22,403 24,134 9,141 State and Local Agencies NA NA 77,515 12,201 Total US NA NA 406,841 41,428

Table 15. School Bus Fleets, Selected Data, 1999 Printer Friendly Version Number (thousand) Energy Use (trillion Btu) Alternative Fuel School Buses 3.9 NA Total School Buses 592.0 76.3

Table 16. Summary of Potential Impacts of Proposed Alternative Fuels Legislation Printer Friendly Version S. 1766 Section Requirements Potential Impact 811 Requires dual fuel vehicles in Federal fleet to use alternative fuels for 75 percent of fuel by 2005. Includes enclosed 3-wheel electric vehicles as AFVs Increase Federal alternative fuels consumption by 3.8 million gallons (66 percent increase over 1999 consumption of 5.8 million gallons). This reduces Federal fleet gasoline consumption by a corresponding amount, or 1.4 percent of total. The reduction of 3.8 million gallons of gasoline would reduce total U.S. gasoline consumption by 0.003 percent. Not estimated. 812 Single passenger AFVs allowed in HOV lanes Not estimated. 814 Provides grants for demonstration and commercial application of alternative fuel school buses and ultra-low sulfur diesel buses to replace pre-1977 buses and pre-1991 diesel buses Total school bus consumption was about 608 million gallons gasoline equivalent in 1999. Likely to have minimal energy impact due to small number of buses involved.