Notes

1 National Commission on Energy Policy, Ending the Energy Stalemate: A Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America's Energy Challenges (Washington, DC, December 2004), web site www.energycommission.org/ewebeditpro/items/O82F4682.pdf. The National Commission on Energy Policy is a nongovernmental organization funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and its partners--The Pew Charitable Trusts, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, and the Energy Foundation.

2 Energy Information Administration, Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy, SR/OIAF/2005-02 (Washington, DC, April, 2005) web site http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/bingaman/index.html.

3 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2005, DOE/EIA-0383(2005) (Washington, DC, February 2005), website www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html.

4 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2006, DOE/EIA-0383(2006) (Washington, DC, February 2006), website www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html.

5 Greenhouse gas intensity is defined as the emissions of greenhouse gases from covered sources per real dollar of GDP (in 2000 dollars). Greenhouse gases are measured in metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent. The gases covered in the proposed reduction program include energy-related carbon dioxide, methane from coal mining, nitrous oxide from nitric acid and adipic acid production, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride.

6 National Commission on Energy Policy, Ending the Energy Stalemate: A Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America's EnergyChallenges (Washington, DC, December 2004), web site www.energycommission.org/ewebeditpro/items/O82F4682.pdf. The National Commission on Energy Policy is a nongovernmental organization funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and its partners-The Pew Charitable Trusts, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, and the Energy Foundation.

7 Energy Information Administration, Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on EnergyPolicy, SR/OIAF/2005-02 (Washington, DC, April, 2005) web site http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/bingaman/index.html

8 The safety-valve is an agreement by the government to sell emission permits at a given price so as to limit the potential permit cost to a maximum. The government is assumed to sell permits sufficient to make up the difference between covered emissions and the emissions goal. As a result, the government begins to accrue additional permit revenue once the safety-valve price is reached.

9 Energy Information Administration, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA-0581(2003)
(Washington, DC, March, 2003), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview/index.html.

10 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2006, DOE/EIA-0383(2006) (Washington, DC, February 2006), web site www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html.

11 The AEO2006 high technology case assumes earlier introduction, lower costs, and higher efficiencies for
energy technologies in the end-use sectors, as well as improved costs and efficiencies for advanced fossilfired,
nuclear, and renewable generating technologies in the electric power sector.

12 See "Addendum" in the "Global Change Policy Book" at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/02/climatechange.html. The business-as-usual (BAU)
projections cited in the addendum are somewhat higher than a "Policies and Measures" case EPA
developed for the U.S. Climate Action Report 2002.

13 U.S. Department of State, U.S. Climate Action Report 2002 (Washington, DC, May 2002), Chapter 5,
"Projected Greenhouse Gas Emissions," pp. 70-80, web site: http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/
ResourceCenterPublicationsUSClimateActionReport.html.

14 Personal communication from Casey Delhotal, of the Environmental Protection Agency, to Dan Skelly of
the Energy Information Administration, on July 7, 2005. EIA adjusted the EPA no-measures case
projections to extrapolate from the most recent 2002-to-2004 data on these gases as published by EIA, as
well as to estimate the intervening years of the projections, since the projections were only provided for
every five years beginning in 2005 and ending in 2020. In addition, EIA extrapolated the projection to
2030 for this analysis based on the average annual growth rates of individual emissions sources from 2015
to 2020.

15 The NCEP report recommended that most emission permits (95 percent initially, declining to 90 percent
between 2013 and 2022) would be allocated to emission sources at no cost primarily on the basis of past
emissions.