Table 9.  Projected Generator Retirements, Capacity Additions, and Generation Efficiency, 2005 and 2010

Projection

Reference

1990+24%

1990+9%

1990-7%

2005 Start

Early Start

2005 Start

Early Start

2005 Start

Early Start

 

2005

Cumulative Retirements (Thousand Megawatts)

             

  Coal Steam

0.1

0.3

0.7

0.3

11.5

0.5

14.8

  Other Fossil Steam

7.3

9.4

15.0

10.1

31.7

11.1

15.6

  Combined Cycle

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

  Combustion Turbine/Diesel

1.6

1.1

0.9

1.5

1.5

1.3

1.2

  Nuclear

5.7

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.2

0.0

0.0

  Renewable/Other

0.0

0.0

0.7

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

    Total

14.8

12.9

19.3

13.9

46.2

12.9

31.7

Cumulative Capacity Additions (Thousand Megawatts)

             

  Coal Steama

6.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

  Other Fossil Steam

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

  Combined Cycle

36.9

47.8

47.6

60.9

81.0

64.7

111.5

  Combustion Turbine/Diesel

73.6

64.8

56.7

48.5

35.1

45.6

28.4

  Nuclear

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

  Renewable/Other

5.6

5.8

5.8

7.6

8.2

11.5

21.1

    Total

123.4

122.5

114.3

121.2

128.5

126.0

165.2

Efficiency (Thousand Btu per Kilowatthour)b

9.21

9.14

9.07

8.88

8.65

8.75

8.16

 

2010

Cumulative Retirements (Thousand Megawatts)

             

  Coal Steam

0.4

2.5

6.1

26.6

47.8

43.5

138.0

  Other Fossil Steam

12.3

31.2

31.4

42.8

53.9

27.5

24.8

  Combined Cycle

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

  Combustion Turbine/Diesel

2.9

2.7

2.2

2.7

2.2

2.6

1.6

  Nuclear

19.4

12.9

12.9

7.3

6.9

0.8

2.0

  Renewable/Other

0.4

0.8

0.8

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.1

    Total

35.5

50.1

53.3

79.9

111.3

74.5

166.5

Cumulative Capacity Additions (Thousand Megawatts)

             

  Coal Steama

8.7

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

  Other Fossil Steam

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

  Combined Cycle

76.3

103.3

106.7

172.9

185.7

177.5

203.3

  Combustion Turbine/Diesel

103.1

72.6

68.6

50.8

37.4

48.6

34.3

  Nuclear

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

  Renewable/Other

6.4

8.4

8.1

14.7

15.6

29.5

52.5

    Total

195.8

188.4

187.7

242.7

242.9

259.8

294.3

Efficiency (Thousand Btu per Kilowatthour)b

8.98

8.64

8.63

7.92

7.87

7.57

7.30

aThe coal capacity additions are planned units brought on line by 2000.
b
Fuel inputs include coal, natural gas, petroleum, biomass, and municipal solid waste, excluding cogeneration.
Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, EARLY24.D052099A, FD09ABV.D080398B, EARLY09.D053199A, FD07BLW.D080398B, and EARLY07.D052199A.

 

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