U.S. Carbon Emissions
(Million Metric Tons)

1,463

1,929

1,668

1,670

1,468

1,468

1,251

1,249

Emissions Reductions
(Percent Change From Reference Case)

—

—

13.5

13.4

23.9

23.9

35.1

35.3

Total Energy Consumption
(Quadrillion Btu)

(Percent Change From Reference Case)

93.8

—

117.0

—

108.6

-7.2

108.4

-7.4

103.8

-11.3

103.6

-11.5

98.8

-15.6

99.0

-15.4

Carbon Price
(1996 Dollars per Metric Ton)

—

—

99

96

141

137

305

267

Carbon Revenue^a
(Billion 1996 Dollars)

—

—

162

157

202

196

372

325

Gasoline Price
(1996 Dollars per Gallon)

(Percent Change From Reference Case)

1.23

—

1.24

—

1.42

14.5

1.39

12.1

1.49

20.2

1.46

17.7

1.80

45.2

1.69

36.3

Average Electricity Price
(1996 Cents per Kilowatthour)

(Percent Change From Reference Case)

6.8

—

5.6

—

7.3

30.4

7.3

30.4

8.1

44.6

8.0

42.9

9.3

66.1

8.9

58.9

Actual Gross Domestic Product^b
(Billion 1992 Dollars)

(Percent Change From Reference Case)

(Annual Percentage Growth Rate, 2000-2020)

6,928

—

—

10,865

—

1.8

10,815

-0.5

1.7

10,820

-0.4

1.7

10,796

-0.6

1.7

10,803

-0.6

1.7

10,782

-0.8

1.7

10,812

-0.5

1.7

Potential Gross Domestic Product
(Billion 1992 Dollars)

(Percent Change From Reference Case)

(Annual Percentage Growth Rate, 2000-2020)

6,930

—

—

10,994

—

1.8

10,968

-0.2

1.8

10,966

-0.3

1.8

10,954

-0.4

1.8

10,952

-0.4

1.8

10,925

-0.6

1.8

10,926

`-0.6

1.8

Change in Energy Intensity
(Annual Percent Change, 2000-2020)

(Percent Change From Reference Case)

—

—

-0.9

—

-1.3

37.1

-1.3

36.5

-1.5

59.7

-1.5

57.7

-1.7

84.5

-1.6

76.1

^aThe carbon revenues do not include fees on the nonsequestered portion of petrochemical feedstocks, nonpurchased refinery fuels, or industrial other petroleum.
^bCarbon permit revenues are assumed to be returned to households through personal income tax rebates.
Note: In the cases with an early start date, the peak impact on the economy occurs in 2005 and declines by 2010. For example, in the 1990+9% case with the 2000 start date, the percent change in actual gross domestic product is -1.6 percent in 2005, compared to -0.4 percent in 2020.
Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, EARLY24.D052099A, FD09ABV.D080398B, EARLY09.D053199A, FD07BLW.D080398B, and EARLY07.D052199A.