Report Contents
Report#:SR/OIAF/99-02
Timing
of U.S. Carbon Reductions
Completed
Report in
PDF Format ( 353 KB)
Related Reports
Impacts
of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets & Economic Activity
Analysis
of the Climate Change Technology Initiative
Related Links
Notes
and Sources
[1] Energy Information Administration, Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity, SR/OIAF/98-03 (Washington, DC, October 1998).
[2] Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, European Community, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and United States of America. Turkey and Belarus are Annex I nations that have not ratified the Framework Convention and did not commit to quantifiable emissions targets.
[3] Hydrofluorocarbons are a non-ozone-depleting substitute for CFCs; perfluorocarbons are byproducts of aluminum production and are also used in semiconductor manufacturing; and sulfur hexafluoride is used as an insulator in electrical equipment and in semiconductor manufacturing.
[4] Energy Information Administration, What Does the Kyoto Protocol Mean to U.S. Energy Markets and the U.S. Economy?, SR/OIAF/98-03(S) (Washington, DC, October 1998).
[5] Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997).
[6] Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1997, DOE/EIA-0573(97) (Washington, DC, October 1998).
[7] Light-duty vehicles include cars, vans, pickup trucks, and sport utility vehicles.
[8] In the electricity generation sector, for example, endogenous technological change is based on more rapid penetration of efficient technologies. In the buildings sectors, technological changes are represented by explicitly increasing the rates of change in the assumed cost and performance of end-use technologies. Other changes are assumed for the industrial and transportation sectors.
[9] The energy intensity of each process step declines gradually from the base period intensity to a target energy intensity for the year 2020. However, with rapidly rising energy prices, the 2020 target intensity can be achieved earlier, up to twice as rapidly as in the reference case.
[10] Fuel inputs include coal, natural gas, petroleum, biomass, and municipal solid waste, excluding cogeneration.
Figure 1. Projected Carbon Emissions, 1990-2000. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 1996, DOE/EIA-0573(96) (Washington, DC, October 1997). Projections: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.
Figure 2. Projected Carbon Prices, 1996-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998. D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.
Figure 3. Projected Changes in Average Delivered Prices for Energy Fuels in the 1990+9% Case Relative to the Reference Case, 1996-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A and FD09ABV.D080398B.
Figure 4. Projections of U.S. Energy Intensity, 1970-2020. Sources: History: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998). Projections: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV. D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW. D080398B.
Figure 5. Projected Reductions in Carbon Emissions From the Electricity Supply Sector, 1990+9% Case, 1996-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A and FD09ABV.D080398B.
Figure 6. Projections of Fuel Shares of Total U.S. Energy Consumption, 2010. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, and FD07BLW.D080398B.
Figure 7. Average Projected Carbon Prices, 2008-2012. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs FD24ABV.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD07BLW. D080398B, EARLY24.D052099A, EARLY09.D053199A, and EARLY07. D052199A.
Figure 8. Average Projected Carbon Prices and Annual Carbon Emission Reductions, 2008-2012. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD1998. D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, FD1990.D080398B, FD03BLW.D080398B, FD07BLW.D080398B, EARLY24.D052099A, EARLY09.D053199A, and EARLY07.D052199A.
Figure 9. Projected Carbon Emissions in the 1990+24% and 1990+24% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs FD24ABV.D080398B and EARLY24.D052099A.
Figure 10. Projected U.S. Energy Intensity in the 1990+24% and 1990+24% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs FD24ABV.D080398B and EARLY24.D052099A.
Figure 11. Projected Carbon Prices in the 1990+24% and 1990+24% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs FD24ABV.D080398B and EARLY24.D052099A.
Figure 12. Projected Carbon Emissions in the 1990+9% and 1990+9% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs FD09ABV.D080398B and EARLY09.D053199A.
Figure 13. Projected U.S. Energy Intensity in the 1990+9% and 1990+9% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs FD09ABV.D080398B and EARLY09.D053199A.
Figure 14. Projected Carbon Prices in the 1990+9% and 1990+9% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs FD09ABV.D080398B and EARLY09.D053199A.
Figure 15. Projected Carbon Emissions in the 1990-7% and 1990-7% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs FD07BLW.D080398B and EARLY07.D052199A.
Figure 16. Projected U.S. Energy Intensity in the 1990-7% and 1990-7% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs FD07BLW.D080398B and EARLY07.D052199A.
Figure 17. Projected Carbon Prices in the 1990-7% and 1990-7% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs FD07BLW.D080398B and EARLY07.D052199A.
Figure 18. Total Projected U.S. Payments for Domestic and International Carbon Permits in the 1990+24% and 1990+24% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Simulations of the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.
Figure 19. Total Projected U.S. Payments for Domestic and International Carbon Permits in the 1990+9% and 1990+9% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Simulations of the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.
Figure 20. Total Projected U.S. Payments for Domestic and International Carbon Permits in the 1990-7% and 1990-7% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Simulations of the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.
Figure 21. Projected Dollar Losses in Potential and Actual U.S. Gross Domestic Product in the 1990+9% and 1990+9% Early Start Cases Relative to the Reference Case, 1998-2020. Source: Simulations of the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.
Figure 22. Projected Dollar Losses in Actual Gross Domestic Product in the 1990+24% and 1990+24% Early Start Cases Relative to the Reference Case, 1998-2020. Source: Simulations of the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.
Figure 23. Projected Dollar Losses in Actual Gross Domestic Product in the 1990+9% and 1990+9% Early Start Cases Relative to the Reference Case, 1998-2020. Source: Simulations of the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.
Figure 24. Projected Dollar Losses in Actual Gross Domestic Product in the 1990-7% and 1990-7% Early Start Cases Relative to the Reference Case, 1998-2020. Source: Simulations of the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.
Figure 25. Projected Five-Year Average GDP Growth Rates in the Early Start Cases, 2000-2005, and in the Kyoto Protocol Analysis Cases, 2005-2010. Source: Simulations of the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.
Figure 26. Projections of U.S. Industrial Output in the 1990+9% and 1990+9% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs FD09ABV.D080398B and EARLY09.D053199A.
Figure 27. Projected Energy Consumption in the U.S. Industrial Sector in the 1990+9% and 1990+9% Early Start Cases, 1998-2020. Source: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs FD09ABV.D080398B and EARLY09.D053199A.