Kyoto - Summary of Energy Market Trends

Table 2. Summary Comparison: Reference, 1990+24%, 1990+9%, and 1990-3% Cases, 2010 and 2020

Summary Indicators	1996	2010				2020
Summary Indicators	1996	Reference	1990 +24%	1990 +9%	1990 -3%	Reference	1990 +24%	1990 +9%	1990 -3%
Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton)	NA	NA	67	163	294	NA	99	141	240
Delivered Energy Price (1996 Dollars per Million Btu)
Coal	1.32	1.12	2.82	5.24	8.57	1.01	3.50	4.57	7.18
Natural Gas	4.13	3.76	4.71	6.45	8.49	3.96	5.69	6.95	8.30
Motor Gasoline	9.89	10.11	11.23	12.53	14.49	10.00	11.45	12.04	13.48
Jet Fuel	5.52	5.62	6.69	8.15	10.24	5.76	7.32	8.01	9.66
Distillate Fuel	7.84	7.81	8.91	10.50	12.71	7.67	9.21	9.79	11.49
Electricity	20.19	17.22	20.92	25.70	30.68	16.31	21.44	23.77	26.10
Primary Energy Use (Quadrillion Btu)
Natural Gas	22.60	28.97	29.57	31.82	32.49	32.65	34.50	36.02	35.39
Petroleum	36.01	43.82	42.83	41.12	38.89	46.88	45.25	44.78	42.94
Coal	20.90	24.14	19.70	11.68	6.72	25.27	15.28	7.06	2.59
Nuclear	7.20	6.17	6.68	6.98	7.36	3.80	5.06	5.90	6.86
Renewable	6.91	7.27	7.44	7.72	8.23	7.59	8.29	9.77	11.91
Other^a	0.39	0.80	0.25	0.25	0.23	0.83	0.26	0.26	0.25
Total	94.01	111.18	106.48	99.57	93.93	117.02	108.64	103.79	99.94
Electricity Sales (Billion Kilowatthours)	3,098	3,865	3,696	3,492	3,286	4,240	3,972	3,837	3,718
Carbon Emissions by Fuel (Million Metric Tons)
Natural Gas	318	415	424	456	466	468	495	517	507
Petroleum	621	752	735	704	660	805	777	767	727
Coal	524	621	506	299	172	652	393	181	66
Total	1,463	1,791	1,668	1,462	1,300	1,929	1,668	1,468	1,303
Carbon Emissions by Sector (Million Metric Tons)
Residential	286	337	301	238	199	375	291	224	181
Commercial	230	277	244	186	147	299	225	168	130
Industrial	476	559	519	462	418	582	505	449	405
Transportation	471	617	605	576	536	673	647	626	588
Total	1,463	1,791	1,668	1,462	1,300	1,929	1,668	1,468	1,303
Electricity Generation	517	657	567	409	312	726	519	351	246
Carbon Reductions by Sector (Million Metric Tons)
Residential	NA	NA	37	99	139	NA	85	151	195
Commercial	NA	NA	33	91	130	NA	73	131	169
Industrial	NA	NA	41	98	141	NA	77	133	177
Transportation	NA	NA	12	41	81	NA	26	47	85
Total	NA	NA	123	329	491	NA	261	461	625
Electricity Generation	NA	NA	90	248	345	NA	207	375	481
Electricity Generation as Percent of Total	NA	NA	74	75	70	NA	79	81	77
Energy Fuel Expenditures (Billion 1996 Dollars)	560	637	726	834	952	674	807	862	945
Energy Intensity (Thousand Btu per 1992 Dollar of GDP)	13.57	11.80	11.42	10.78	10.33	10.78	10.05	9.62	9.27
Carbon Intensity (Kilograms per Million Btu)	15.6	16.1	15.7	14.7	13.8	16.5	15.4	14.1	13.0
^aIncludes net electricity imports, methanol, and liquid hydrogen. NA = not applicable. Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Sources: 1996: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1998, DOE/EIA-0383(98) (Washington, DC, December 1997). Projections: Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting, National Energy Modeling System runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, and FD03BLW.D080398B.