For Reference: A
Matrix of Variables for Cases Analyzed by EIA
Selected Variables in the Carbon Reduction Cases, 1996, 2010 and 2020
Variable |
1996 |
2010 | 2020 | ||||||||||||
| Reference | 1990 +24% |
1990 +14% |
1990 +9% |
1990 | 1990 -3% |
1990 -7% |
Reference | 1990
+24% |
1990 +14% |
1990 +9% |
1990 | 1990 -3% |
1990 -7% |
||
| U.S. Carbon Emissions
(Million Metric Tons) |
1,463 | 1,791 | 1,668 | 1,535 | 1,462 | 1,340 | 1,300 | 1,243 | 1,929 | 1,668 | 1,535 | 1,468 | 1,347 | 1,303 | 1,251 |
| Emissions Reductions
(Percent Change From Reference Case) |
-- | -- | 6.9 | 14.3 | 18.4 | 25.2 | 27.4 | 30.6 | -- | 13.5 | 20.4 | 23.9 | 30.2 | 32.5 | 35.1 |
| Total Energy
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) |
93.8 | 111.2 | 106.5 | 101.9 | 99.6 | 95.2 | 93.9 | 91.7 | 117.0 | 108.6 | 105.6 | 103.8 | 100.9 | 99.9 | 98.8 |
| (Percent Change From Reference Case) | -- | -- | -4.2 | -8.4 | -10.4 | -14.4 | -15.6 | -17.5 | -- | -7.2 | -9.7 | -11.3 | -13.8 | -14.6 | -15.6 |
| Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) |
-- | -- | 67 | 129 | 163 | 254 | 294 | 348 | -- | 99 | 123 | 141 | 200 | 240 | 3.72 |
| Carbon Revenuea
(Billion 1996 Dollars) |
-- | -- | 110 | 195 | 233 | 333 | 374 | 424 | -- | 162 | 184 | 202 | 263 | 306 | 372 |
| Gasoline Price
(1996 Dollars per Gallon--average all grades) |
1.23 | 1.25 | 1.39 | 1.50 | 1.55 | 1.72 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.24 | 1.42 | 1.45 | 1.49 | 1.60 | 1.67 | 1.80 |
| (Percent Change From Reference Case) | -- | -- | 11.2 | 20.0 | 24.0 | 37.6 | 44.0 | 52.8 | -- | 14.5 | 16.9 | 20.2 | 29.0 | 34.7 | 45.2 |
| Average Electricity
Price (1996 Cents per Kilowatthour) |
6.8 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 9.3 |
| (Percent Change From Reference Case) | -- | -- | 20.3 | 39.0 | 49.2 | 69.5 | 78.0 | 86.4 | -- | 30.4 | 39.3 | 44.6 | 55.4 | 58.9 | 66.1 |
| Actual Gross Domestic
Productb (Billion 1992 Dollars) |
6,928c | 9,429 | 9,333 | 9,268 | 9,241 | 9,137 | 9,102 | 9,032 | 10,865 | 10,815 | 10,808 | 10,796 | 10,799 | 10,793 | 10,782 |
| (Percent Change From Reference Case) | -- | -- | -1.0 | -1.7 | -2.0 | -3.1 | -3.5 | -4.2 | -- | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
| (Annual Percentage Growth Rate, 2005-2010) | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | |
| Potential Gross
Domestic Product (Billion 1992 Dollars) |
6,930c | 9,482 | 9,469 | 9,455 | 9,448 | 9,429 | 9,420 | 9,410 | 10,994 | 10,968 | 10,961 | 10,954 | 10,940 | 10,933 | 10,925 |
| (Percent Change From Reference Case) | -- | -- | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.8 | -- | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| (Annual Percentage Growth Rate, 2005-2010) | -- | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Change in Energy
Intensity (Annual Percentage Change, 2005-2010) |
-- | -1.0 | -1.6 | -2.0 | -2.1 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -3.0 | -0.9 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -1.5 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.7 |
| (Percent Change From Reference Case) | -- | -- | 55.6 | 96.4 | 108.2 | 161.8 | 177.0 | 199.0 | -- | 46.3 | 54.0 | 55.7 | 72.1 | 76.9 | 80.9 |
| aThe
carbon revenues do not include fees on the nonsequestered portion of petrochemical
feedstocks, nonpurchased refinery fuels, or industrial other petroleum. bCarbon permit revenues are assumed to be returned to households through personal income tax rebates. cActual Gross Domestic Product can differ from the Potential Gross Domestic Product, a measure of the productive capacity of the economy when labor is not at its full employment level and capital is not at a high level of utilization |
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