Table 2.  AEO99 Technological Optimism and Learning Factors for New Generating Technologies

Technology

Optimism Factor

Learning Factors

Units 1 to 5

Units 6 to 40

Units 40 and Above

Scrubbed Coal

1.00

NA

NA

0.03

Integrated Gas Combined Cycle

1.16

0.10

0.05

0.03

Gas/Oil Steam Turbine

1.00

NA

NA

0.03

Conventional Gas/Oil Combined Cycle

1.00

NA

NA

0.03

Advanced Gas/Oil Combined Cycle

1.12

0.10

0.05

0.03

Conventional Combustion Turbine

1.00

NA

NA

0.03

Advanced Combustion Turbine

1.12

0.10

0.05

0.03

Fuel Cells

1.16

0.10

0.05

0.03

Advanced Nuclear

1.19

0.10

0.05

0.03

Biomass

1.19

0.10

0.05

0.03

Municipal Solid Waste

NA

NA

NA

NA

Geothermal

NA

0.10

0.05

0.03

Wind

1.00

0.08

0.05

0.05

Solar Thermal

1.19

0.10

0.05

0.03

Solar Photovoltaic

1.12

0.10

0.05

0.03

Source: Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 1999, DOE/EIA-0554(99) (Washington, DC, December 1998).