Table A1.  Total Energy Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, Absolute Errors, and
5-Year Moving Average of Absolute Errors, 1985-1998

Publication

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Average Absolute Error

(Quadrillion Btu)

AEO82

79.1

79.6

79.9

80.8

82.0

83.3

                

1.8

AEO83

78.0

79.5

81.0

82.4

83.8

84.6

        

89.5

      

1.2

AEO84

78.5

79.4

81.2

83.1

85.0

86.4

        

93.5

      

1.6

AEO85

77.6

78.5

79.8

81.2

82.6

83.3

84.2

85.2

85.9

86.7

87.7

      

1.3

AEO86

 

77.0

78.8

79.8

80.6

81.5

82.9

84.0

84.8

85.7

86.5

87.9

88.4

88.8

3.2

AEO87

   

78.9

80.0

81.9

82.8

83.9

85.3

86.4

87.5

88.4

      

1.5

AEO89

     

82.2

83.7

84.5

85.4

86.4

87.3

88.2

89.2

90.8

91.4

91.9

1.4

AEO90

       

84.2

85.4

        

91.9

      

0.8

AEO91

         

84.4

85.0

86.0

87.0

87.9

89.1

90.4

91.8

93.1

1.4

AEO92

           

84.7

87.0

88.0

89.2

90.5

91.4

92.4

93.4

1.1

AEO93

             

87.0

88.3

89.8

91.4

92.7

94.0

95.3

0.9

AEO94

               

88.0

89.5

90.7

91.7

92.7

93.6

1.0

AEO95

                 

89.2

90.0

90.6

91.9

93.0

1.6

AEO96

                   

90.6

91.3

92.5

93.5

1.4

AEO97

                     

92.6

93.6

95.1

1.0

AEO98

                       

94.7

96.7

1.4

AEO99

                         

94.6

0.4

Actual Value

76.8

77.0

79.6

83.0

84.5

84.1

84.0

85.5

87.3

89.3

91.0

94.0

94.4

94.2

  


(Absolute Error)                                    5-Year Moving 
Average

AEO85

0.8

1.5

0.2

1.8

1.9

0.8

0.2

0.3

            

1.2

AEO86

 

0.0

0.8

3.2

3.9

2.6

1.1

1.5

2.5

          

2.1

AEO87

   

0.7

3.0

2.6

1.3

0.1

0.2

0.9

1.8

        

1.5

AEO89

     

0.8

0.8

0.4

1.4

0.9

0.0

1.1

1.8

      

0.9

AEO90

                             

AEO91

         

0.3

1.0

0.5

0.3

1.4

2.0

3.6

2.6

  

0.7

AEO92

           

0.7

1.5

0.7

0.2

0.5

2.6

2.0

0.8

0.7

AEO93

             

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.4

1.3

0.4

1.1

0.9

AEO94

               

0.7

0.2

0.3

2.3

1.7

0.6

1.0

AEO95

                 

0.1

1.0

3.4

2.5

1.2

1.7

AEO96

                   

0.4

2.7

1.9

0.7

  

AEO97

                     

1.4

0.8

0.9

  

AEO98

                       

0.3

2.5

  

AEO99

                         

0.4

  

AEO = Annual Energy Outlook.
Btu = British thermal unit.
Note: Includes nonelectric renewables.
Sources: Actual Values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 1998, DOE/EIA-0384(98) (Washington, DC, July 1999). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0383(82-99) (Washington, DC, April 1983 - December 1998).