Report Contents

Report#:EIA/DOE-0607(99)

Preface

Trends in Power Plant Operating Costs

Sectoral Pricing in a Restructured Electricity Market

Modeling the Costs of U.S. Wind Supply

Modeling Technology Learning in the National Energy Modeling System

Employment Trends in Oil and Gas Extraction

Price Responsiveness in the NEMS Buildings Sector Models

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation

National Energy Modeling System/Annual Energy Outlook Conference Summary

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[1] It is likely, however, that customer classes will vary from their traditional designations and will be defined by load size and consumption patterns.

[2] The ability of regulators to act upon their preferences will depend on the structure of the market and the decisions of various States on how to manage such transition issues as allocation of stranded costs. Many States have included mandated rate reductions as part of the transition to a competitive market. For instance, both California and Massachusetts have mandated reductions in residential rates while the transition period is in effect. See, for instance, web site www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/chg_str/tab5rev.html.

[3] Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Annual 1991, DOE/EIA-0131(91) (Washington, DC, October 1992).

[4] It is likely that Figure 1 underestimates the difference between industrial and other customers, as the industrial customer data reflect only the subset that have not chosen to leave their local distribution companies.

Figure 1.  Index of Real U.S. Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Markups by End-Use Sector, 1985-1997.  Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 1997, DOE/EIA-0384(97) (Washington, DC, July 1998), and Natural Gas Annual 1997, DOE/EIA-0131(97) (Washington, DC, October 1998).

Figure 2.  Implied Regulatory Preference by NERC Region.  Note: Bars represent comparative preferences among customer classes within each region. They are not comparable across regions. Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B.D100198A and COMPETE.D100398A.

Figure 3.  Actual 1997 Electricity Prices by Sector and Calculated Prices with Optimal Pricing.  Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B. D100198A and COMPETE.D100398A.

Figure 4.  ECAR Electricity Prices by End-Use Sector in the Reference and Full Competition Cases, 1999-2020.  Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs AEO99B. D100198A and COMPETE.D100398A.

Figure 5.  ECAR Electricity Generation Price Duration Curve.  Source: National Energy Modeling System, run COMPETE. D100398A.

Figure 6.  Generation Component od ECAR Electricity Prices by End-Use Sector, 1999-2020.  Source: National Energy Modeling System, run COMPETE. D100398A.

Figure 7.  Industrial Prices Under Four Bypass Parameter Values, 1999-2020.  Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs COMPETE.D100398A, NOBYPASS.D061199B, BYPASS5. D060199B, and BYPASS8.D060199B.

Figure 8.  Residential Electricity Prices in the ECAR Region Under Three Fixed Cost Allocation Options, 1999-2020.  Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs COMPETE.D100398A, AEO99B.D100198A, and NOBYPASS.D061199B.

Figure 9.  Commercial Electricity Prices in the ECAR Region Under Three Fixed Cost Allocation Options, 1999-2020.  Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs COMPETE.D100398A, AEO99B.D100198A, and NOBYPASS.D061199B.

Figure 10.  Industrial Electricity Prices in the ECAR Region Under Three Fixed Cost Allocation Options, 1999-2020.   Source: National Energy Modeling System, runs COMPETE.D100398A, AEO99B.D100198A, and NOBYPASS.D061199B.