Publication

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Average Absolute Error

(Million Short Tons)

AEO82

914

939

963

995

1,031

1,080

45

AEO83

900

926

947

974

1,010

1,045

1,191

44

AEO84

899

921

948

974

1,010

1,057

1,221

49

AEO85

886

909

930

940

958

985

1,015

1,041

1,072

1,094

1,116

40

AEO86

890

920

954

962

983

1,017

1,044

1,073

1,097

1,126

1,142

1,156

1,176

48

AEO87

917

914

932

962

978

996

1,020

1,043

1,068

33

AEO89

941

946

977

990

1,018

1,039

1,058

1,082

1,084

1,107

1,130

31

AEO90

973

987

1,085

34

AEO91

1,035

1,002

1,016

1,031

1,043

1,054

1,065

1,079

1,096

20

AEO92

1,004

1,040

1,019

1,034

1,052

1,064

1,074

1,087

24

AEO93

1,039

1,043

1,054

1,065

1,076

1,086

1,094

33

AEO94

999

1,021

1,041

1,051

1,056

1,066

29

AEO95

1,006

1,010

1,011

1,016

1,017

56

AEO96

1,037

1,044

1,041

1,045

37

AEO97

1,028

1,052

1,072

40

AEO98

1,088

1,122

3

AEO99

1,125

6

Actual Value

884

890

919

950

981

1,029

996

998

945

1,034

1,033

1,064

1,090

1,119

Average Absolute Error

16

27

19

22

30

39

13

30

92

25

59

26

31

39

36

(Percent Error)

AEO82

3.4

5.5

4.8

4.7

5.1

5.0

4.7

AEO83

1.8

4.0

3.0

2.5

3.0

1.6

15.3

4.5

AEO84

1.7

3.5

3.2

2.5

3.0

2.7

18.2

5.0

AEO85

0.2

2.1

1.2

-1.1

-2.3

-4.3

1.9

4.3

13.4

5.8

8.0

4.1

AEO86

0.0

0.1

0.4

-1.9

-4.5

2.1

4.6

13.5

6.1

9.0

7.3

6.1

5.1

4.7

AEO87

-0.2

-3.8

-5.0

-6.5

-1.8

-0.2

7.9

0.9

3.4

3.3

AEO89

-0.9

-3.6

-5.1

-0.6

2.0

9.9

2.3

4.7

1.9

1.6

1.0

3.1

AEO90

-0.8

-4.1

5.0

3.3

AEO91

0.6

0.6

1.8

9.1

0.9

2.0

0.1

-1.0

-2.1

2.0

AEO92

0.8

4.2

7.8

0.0

1.8

0.0

-1.5

-2.9

2.4

AEO93

4.1

10.4

1.9

3.1

1.1

-0.4

-2.2

3.3

AEO94

5.7

-1.3

0.8

-1.2

-3.1

-4.7

2.8

AEO95

-2.7

-2.2

-5.0

-6.8

-9.1

5.2

AEO96

0.4

-1.9

-4.5

-6.6

3.3

AEO97

-3.4

-3.5

-4.2

3.7

AEO98

-0.2

0.3

0.2

AEO99

0.5

0.5

Average Absolute Percent Error

1.8

3.0

2.1

2.3

3.1

3.8

1.3

3.0

9.7

2.4

5.7

2.4

2.9

3.5

3.6

AEO = Annual Energy Outlook.
Sources: Actual Values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 1998, DOE/EIA-0384(98) (Washington, DC, July 1999). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0383(82-99) (Washington, DC, April 1983 - December 1998).