Table 8. Natural Gas Production: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1998
|
Publication |
1985 |
1986 |
1987 |
1988 |
1989 |
1990 |
1991 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
Average Absolute Error |
|
(Trillion Cubic Feet) |
|||||||||||||||
|
AEO82 |
14.74 |
14.26 |
14.33 |
14.89 |
15.39 |
15.88 |
1.98 |
||||||||
|
AEO83 |
16.48 |
16.27 |
16.20 |
16.31 |
16.27 |
16.29 |
14.89 |
1.10 |
|||||||
|
AEO84 |
17.48 |
17.10 |
17.44 |
17.58 |
17.52 |
17.32 |
16.39 |
0.90 |
|||||||
|
AEO85 |
16.95 |
17.08 |
17.11 |
17.29 |
17.40 |
17.33 |
17.32 |
17.27 |
17.05 |
16.80 |
16.50 |
0.81 |
|||
|
AEO86 |
16.30 |
16.27 |
17.15 |
16.68 |
16.90 |
16.97 |
16.87 |
16.93 |
16.86 |
16.62 |
16.40 |
16.33 |
16.57 |
1.26 |
|
|
AEO87 |
16.21 |
16.09 |
16.38 |
16.32 |
16.30 |
16.30 |
16.44 |
16.62 |
16.81 |
1.38 |
|||||
|
AEO89 |
16.71 |
16.71 |
16.94 |
17.01 |
16.83 |
17.09 |
17.35 |
17.54 |
17.67 |
17.98 |
18.20 |
0.90 |
|||
|
AEO90 |
16.91 |
17.25 |
18.84 |
0.40 |
|||||||||||
|
AEO91 |
17.40 |
17.48 |
18.11 |
18.22 |
18.15 |
18.22 |
18.39 |
18.82 |
19.03 |
0.29 |
|||||
|
AEO92 |
17.43 |
17.69 |
17.95 |
18.00 |
18.29 |
18.27 |
18.51 |
18.75 |
0.36 |
||||||
|
AEO93 |
18.47 |
18.05 |
18.16 |
18.45 |
18.90 |
19.07 |
19.30 |
0.30 |
|||||||
|
AEO94 |
17.71 |
17.68 |
17.84 |
18.12 |
18.25 |
18.43 |
0.69 |
||||||||
|
AEO95 |
18.28 |
17.98 |
17.92 |
18.21 |
18.63 |
0.61 |
|||||||||
|
AEO96 |
18.90 |
19.15 |
19.52 |
19.59 |
0.47 |
||||||||||
|
AEO97 |
19.10 |
19.70 |
20.17 |
0.77 |
|||||||||||
|
AEO98 |
18.85 |
19.06 |
0.07 |
||||||||||||
|
AEO99 |
18.80 |
0.18 |
|||||||||||||
|
Actual Value |
16.45 |
16.06 |
16.62 |
17.10 |
17.31 |
17.81 |
17.70 |
17.84 |
18.10 |
18.82 |
18.60 |
18.79 |
18.90 |
18.98 |
|
|
Average Absolute Error |
0.82 |
0.86 |
0.80 |
0.73 |
0.73 |
0.96 |
0.62 |
0.73 |
0.70 |
1.28 |
1.20 |
0.75 |
0.69 |
0.61 |
0.84 |
|
(Percent Error) |
|||||||||||||||
|
AEO82 |
-10.4 |
-11.2 |
-13.8 |
-12.9 |
-11.1 |
-10.8 |
11.7 |
||||||||
|
AEO83 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
-2.5 |
-4.6 |
-6.0 |
-8.5 |
-19.9 |
6.2 |
|||||||
|
AEO84 |
6.3 |
6.5 |
4.9 |
2.8 |
1.2 |
-2.8 |
-11.9 |
5.2 |
|||||||
|
AEO85 |
3.0 |
6.4 |
2.9 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
-2.7 |
-2.1 |
-3.2 |
-5.8 |
-10.7 |
-11.3 |
4.5 |
|||
|
AEO86 |
1.5 |
-2.1 |
0.3 |
-3.6 |
-5.1 |
-4.1 |
-5.4 |
-6.5 |
-10.4 |
-10.6 |
-12.7 |
-13.6 |
-12.7 |
6.8 |
|
|
AEO87 |
-2.5 |
-5.9 |
-5.4 |
-8.4 |
-7.9 |
-8.6 |
-9.2 |
-11.7 |
-9.6 |
7.7 |
|||||
|
AEO89 |
-2.3 |
-3.5 |
-4.9 |
-3.9 |
-5.7 |
-5.6 |
-7.8 |
-5.7 |
-6.0 |
-4.9 |
-4.1 |
4.9 |
|||
|
AEO90 |
-2.3 |
-3.1 |
1.3 |
2.2 |
|||||||||||
|
AEO91 |
-2.3 |
-1.2 |
1.5 |
0.7 |
-3.6 |
-2.0 |
-2.1 |
-0.4 |
0.3 |
1.6 |
|||||
|
AEO92 |
-1.5 |
-0.8 |
-0.8 |
-4.4 |
-1.7 |
-2.8 |
-2.1 |
-1.2 |
1.9 |
||||||
|
AEO93 |
3.5 |
-0.3 |
-3.5 |
-0.8 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
|||||||
|
AEO94 |
-2.2 |
-6.1 |
-4.1 |
-3.6 |
-3.4 |
-2.9 |
3.7 |
||||||||
|
AEO95 |
-2.9 |
-3.3 |
-4.6 |
-3.7 |
-1.8 |
3.3 |
|||||||||
|
AEO96 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
||||||||||
|
AEO97 |
1.6 |
4.2 |
6.3 |
4.1 |
|||||||||||
|
AEO98 |
-0.3 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
||||||||||||
|
AEO99 |
-0.9 |
0.9 |
|||||||||||||
|
Average Absolute Percent Error |
5.0 |
5.4 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
5.4 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
6.8 |
6.5 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
4.7 |
|
AEO = Annual Energy Outlook. |
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