Publication

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Average Absolute Error

(Billion Kilowatthours)

AEO82

2,364

2,454

2,534

2,626

2,708

2,811

68

AEO83

2,318

2,395

2,476

2,565

2,650

2,739

3,153

33

AEO84

2,321

2,376

2,461

2,551

2,637

2,738

3,182

35

AEO85

2,317

2,360

2,427

2,491

2,570

2,651

2,730

2,808

2,879

2,949

3,026

36

AEO86

2,363

2,416

2,479

2,533

2,608

2,706

2,798

2,883

2,966

3,048

3,116

3,185

3,255

49

AEO87

2,460

2,494

2,555

2,622

2,683

2,748

2,823

2,902

2,977

52

AEO89

2,556

2,619

2,689

2,760

2,835

2,917

2,994

3,072

3,156

3,236

3,313

52

AEO90

2,612

2,689

3,083

43

AEO91

2,700

2,762

2,806

2,855

2,904

2,959

3,022

3,088

3,151

38

AEO92

2,746

2,845

2,858

2,913

2,975

3,030

3,087

3,146

45

AEO93

2,803

2,840

2,893

2,946

2,998

3,052

3,104

68

AEO94

2,843

2,891

2,928

2,962

3,004

3,039

100

AEO95

2,951

2,967

2,983

3,026

3,058

91

AEO96

2,973

2,998

3,039

3,074

97

AEO97

3,075

3,115

3,168

33

AEO98

3,106

3,204

25

AEO99

3,205

15

Actual Value

2,324

2,369

2,457

2,578

2,647

2,713

2,762

2,763

2,861

2,935

3,013

3,098

3,140

3,220

Average Absolute Error

14

27

29

54

53

52

31

47

23

32

66

77

74

87

52

(Percent Error)

AEO82

1.7

3.6

3.1

1.9

2.3

3.6

2.7

AEO83

-0.3

1.1

0.8

-0.5

0.1

1.0

4.6

1.2

AEO84

-0.1

0.3

0.2

-1.0

-0.4

0.9

5.6

1.2

AEO85

-0.3

-0.4

-1.2

-3.4

-2.9

-2.3

-1.2

1.6

0.6

0.5

0.4

1.3

AEO86

-0.3

-1.7

-3.8

-4.3

-3.9

-2.0

1.3

0.8

1.1

1.2

0.6

1.4

1.1

1.8

AEO87

0.1

-3.3

-3.5

-3.4

-2.9

-0.5

-1.3

-1.1

-1.2

1.9

AEO89

-0.9

-1.1

-0.9

-0.1

2.6

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

3.1

2.9

1.7

AEO90

-1.3

-0.9

2.3

1.5

AEO91

-0.5

0.0

1.6

-0.2

-1.1

-1.8

-2.5

-1.7

-2.1

1.3

AEO92

-0.6

3.0

-0.1

-0.7

-1.3

-2.2

-1.7

-2.3

1.5

AEO93

1.4

-0.7

-1.4

-2.2

-3.2

-2.8

-3.6

2.2

AEO94

-0.6

-1.5

-2.8

-4.4

-4.3

-5.6

3.2

AEO95

0.5

-1.5

-3.7

-3.6

-5.0

2.9

AEO96

-1.3

-3.2

-3.2

-4.5

3.1

AEO97

-0.7

-0.8

-1.6

1.1

AEO98

-1.1

-0.5

0.8

AEO99

-0.5

0.5

Average Absolute Percent Error

0.6

1.1

1.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.1

1.7

0.8

1.1

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.7

1.8

AEO = Annual Energy Outlook.
Sources: Actual Values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 1998, DOE/EIA-0384(98) (Washington, DC, July 1999). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0383(82-99) (Washington, DC, April 1983 - December 1998).