Publication

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Average Absolute Error

(Trillion Cubic Feet)

AEO82

15.93

15.72

15.72

16.08

16.59

17.08

1.52

AEO83

17.75

17.63

17.57

17.75

17.76

17.77

16.95

1.31

AEO84

18.22

18.07

18.33

18.61

18.73

18.76

18.75

1.06

AEO85

17.79

17.80

17.89

18.30

18.58

18.71

18.79

18.88

18.82

18.82

18.81

0.94

AEO86

16.52

16.83

17.35

17.27

17.50

17.77

17.77

17.90

18.01

18.04

18.03

18.26

18.34

2.03

AEO87

16.85

16.93

17.24

17.27

17.34

17.43

17.66

18.02

18.31

1.87

AEO89

17.75

17.95

17.94

18.08

18.10

18.34

18.68

18.94

19.17

19.55

19.86

1.60

AEO90

18.34

18.66

20.69

0.47

AEO91

18.53

19.21

19.34

19.56

19.76

20.01

20.21

20.66

20.93

0.80

AEO92

18.79

19.36

19.84

20.08

20.53

20.68

21.12

21.42

0.60

AEO93

20.27

20.17

20.54

20.97

21.54

21.83

22.20

0.44

AEO94

19.87

20.21

20.64

20.99

21.20

21.42

0.62

AEO95

20.82

20.66

20.85

21.21

21.65

0.65

AEO96

21.32

21.64

22.11

22.21

0.41

AEO97

22.15

22.75

23.24

0.97

AEO98

21.84

23.03

0.94

AEO99

21.35

0.06

Actual Value

17.28

16.22

17.21

18.03

18.80

18.72

19.04

19.54

20.28

20.71

21.58

21.97

21.97

21.29

Average Absolute Error

0.82

1.13

0.73

0.73

0.99

0.70

0.77

1.01

1.26

1.30

1.99

1.43

1.10

0.99

1.13

(Percent Error)

AEO82

-7.8

-3.1

-8.7

-10.8

-11.8

-8.8

8.5

AEO83

2.7

8.7

2.1

-1.6

-5.5

-5.1

-21.5

6.7

AEO84

5.4

11.4

6.5

3.2

-0.4

0.2

-13.1

5.8

AEO85

3.0

9.7

4.0

1.5

-1.2

-0.1

-1.3

-3.4

-7.2

-9.1

-12.8

4.8

AEO86

1.8

-2.2

-3.8

-8.1

-6.5

-6.7

-9.1

-11.7

-13.0

-16.4

-17.9

-16.9

-13.9

9.9

AEO87

-2.1

-6.1

-8.3

-7.7

-8.9

-10.8

-12.9

-13.0

-15.2

9.4

AEO89

-1.6

-4.5

-4.2

-5.0

-7.4

-9.6

-9.8

-12.2

-12.7

-11.0

-6.7

7.7

AEO90

-2.4

-0.3

-4.1

2.3

AEO91

-1.0

0.9

-1.0

-3.6

-4.6

-7.3

-8.0

-6.0

-1.7

3.8

AEO92

-1.3

-0.9

-2.2

-3.0

-4.9

-5.9

-3.9

0.6

2.8

AEO93

3.7

-0.5

-0.8

-2.8

-2.0

-0.6

4.3

2.1

AEO94

-2.0

-2.4

-4.4

-4.5

-3.5

0.6

2.9

AEO95

0.5

-4.3

-5.1

-3.5

1.7

3.0

AEO96

-1.2

-1.5

0.6

4.3

1.9

AEO97

0.8

3.6

9.2

4.5

AEO98

-0.6

8.2

4.4

AEO99

0.3

0.3

Average Absolute Percent Error

4.7

7.0

4.3

4.1

5.3

3.8

4.0

5.2

6.2

6.3

9.2

6.5

5.0

4.7

5.6

AEO = Annual Energy Outlook.
Note: AEO82 projections given in Btu were converted to trillion cubic feet using a conversion factor of 1.03.
Sources: Actual Values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Annual Energy Review 1998, DOE/EIA-0384(98) (Washington, DC, July 1999). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0383(82-99) (Washington, DC, April 1983 - December 1998).