Table 3. Total Petroleum Consumption: AEO Forecasts, Actual Values, and Absolute and Percent Errors, 1985-1998
|
Publication |
1985 |
1986 |
1987 |
1988 |
1989 |
1990 |
1991 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
Average Absolute Error |
|
(Million Barrels per Day) |
|||||||||||||||
|
AEO82 |
18.00 |
17.89 |
17.55 |
17.24 |
16.98 |
16.99 |
0.86 |
||||||||
|
AEO83 |
15.82 |
16.13 |
16.37 |
16.50 |
16.56 |
16.63 |
17.37 |
0.40 |
|||||||
|
AEO84 |
15.77 |
15.76 |
16.01 |
16.27 |
16.48 |
16.74 |
18.00 |
0.52 |
|||||||
|
AEO85 |
15.72 |
15.74 |
15.97 |
16.01 |
16.06 |
16.08 |
16.18 |
16.23 |
16.32 |
16.36 |
16.53 |
0.86 |
|||
|
AEO86 |
16.07 |
16.29 |
16.05 |
16.07 |
16.15 |
16.31 |
16.37 |
16.42 |
16.44 |
16.46 |
16.50 |
16.64 |
16.80 |
1.08 |
|
|
AEO87 |
16.52 |
16.66 |
16.96 |
17.06 |
17.29 |
17.56 |
17.73 |
17.76 |
17.72 |
0.32 |
|||||
|
AEO89 |
17.01 |
17.20 |
17.44 |
17.57 |
17.72 |
17.76 |
17.78 |
17.82 |
18.05 |
18.12 |
18.19 |
0.39 |
|||
|
AEO90 |
17.24 |
17.41 |
18.21 |
0.33 |
|||||||||||
|
AEO91 |
16.95 |
16.65 |
16.83 |
17.01 |
17.17 |
17.34 |
17.53 |
17.83 |
18.09 |
0.40 |
|||||
|
AEO92 |
16.74 |
17.07 |
17.37 |
17.59 |
17.80 |
17.86 |
17.99 |
18.14 |
0.25 |
||||||
|
AEO93 |
17.07 |
17.45 |
17.79 |
18.15 |
18.26 |
18.60 |
18.88 |
0.15 |
|||||||
|
AEO94 |
17.67 |
17.99 |
18.20 |
18.42 |
18.66 |
18.85 |
0.25 |
||||||||
|
AEO95 |
17.53 |
17.93 |
17.96 |
18.29 |
18.48 |
0.26 |
|||||||||
|
AEO96 |
17.78 |
17.88 |
18.10 |
18.38 |
0.33 |
||||||||||
|
AEO97 |
18.18 |
18.34 |
18.70 |
0.14 |
|||||||||||
|
AEO98 |
18.89 |
18.92 |
0.26 |
||||||||||||
|
AEO99 |
18.86 |
0.18 |
|||||||||||||
|
Actual Value |
15.73 |
16.28 |
16.67 |
17.28 |
17.33 |
16.99 |
16.71 |
17.03 |
17.24 |
17.72 |
17.72 |
18.31 |
18.62 |
18.68 |
|
|
Average Absolute Error |
0.60 |
0.61 |
0.51 |
0.75 |
0.64 |
0.37 |
0.41 |
0.42 |
0.47 |
0.44 |
0.41 |
0.49 |
0.54 |
0.44 |
0.49 |
|
(Percent Error) |
|||||||||||||||
|
AEO82 |
14.4 |
9.9 |
5.3 |
-0.2 |
-2.0 |
0.0 |
5.3 |
||||||||
|
AEO83 |
0.6 |
-0.9 |
-1.8 |
-4.5 |
-4.4 |
-2.1 |
-2.0 |
2.3 |
|||||||
|
AEO84 |
0.3 |
-3.2 |
-4.0 |
-5.8 |
-4.9 |
-1.5 |
1.6 |
3.0 |
|||||||
|
AEO85 |
-0.1 |
-3.3 |
-4.2 |
-7.3 |
-7.3 |
-5.4 |
-3.2 |
-4.7 |
-5.3 |
-7.7 |
-6.7 |
5.0 |
|||
|
AEO86 |
-1.3 |
-2.3 |
-7.1 |
-7.3 |
-4.9 |
-2.4 |
-3.9 |
-4.8 |
-7.2 |
-7.1 |
-9.9 |
-10.6 |
-10.1 |
6.1 |
|
|
AEO87 |
-0.9 |
-3.6 |
-2.1 |
0.4 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
1.9 |
|||||
|
AEO89 |
-1.6 |
-0.8 |
2.6 |
5.1 |
4.1 |
3.0 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
-1.4 |
-2.7 |
-2.6 |
2.3 |
|||
|
AEO90 |
-0.5 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
1.9 |
|||||||||||
|
AEO91 |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
-1.2 |
-1.3 |
-3.1 |
-2.1 |
-4.3 |
-4.2 |
-3.2 |
2.2 |
|||||
|
AEO92 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
-0.7 |
0.5 |
-2.5 |
-3.4 |
-2.9 |
1.4 |
||||||
|
AEO93 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
2.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
|||||||
|
AEO94 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.7 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
||||||||
|
AEO95 |
-1.1 |
1.2 |
-1.9 |
-1.8 |
-1.1 |
1.4 |
|||||||||
|
AEO96 |
0.3 |
-2.3 |
-2.8 |
-1.6 |
1.8 |
||||||||||
|
AEO97 |
-0.7 |
-1.5 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
|||||||||||
|
AEO98 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
||||||||||||
|
AEO99 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|||||||||||||
|
Average Absolute Percent Error |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.1 |
4.3 |
3.7 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
|
AEO = Annual Energy Outlook. |
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