Table 18.  Results of 5-Year Moving Average Analysis of Errors for Selected AEO Forecasts

Table in This Article

AEO85

AEO86

AEO87

AEO89

AEO90

AEO91

AEO92

AEO93

AEO94

AEO95

Table 2
Total Energy Consumption
(Quadrillion Btu)

1.2

2.1

1.5

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.7

Table 3
Total Petroleum Consumption
(Million Barrels per Day)

0.76

0.78

0.36

0.48

0.22

0.08

0.16

0.27

0.26

Table 4
Total Natural Gas Consumption
(Trillion Cubic Feet)

0.65

0.82

1.23

0.86

0.45

0.51

0.41

0.72

0.65

Table 5
Total Coal Consumption
(Million Short Tons)

18

13

22

11

10

25

22

46

55

Table 6
Total Electricity Sales
(Billion Kilowatthours)

42

73

70

30

19

32

54

84

91

Table 13
World Oil Prices
(Dollars per Barrel)

7.84

1.48

1.55

2.02

7.11

4.09

3.43

1.41

2.21

Table 14
Natural Gas Wellhead Prices
(Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet)

0.75

0.61

0.46

0.30

0.30

0.25

0.27

0.30

0.23

Table 15
Coal Prices to Electric Utilities
(Dollars per Million Btu)

0.29

0.27

0.20

0.20

0.26

0.30

0.35

0.31

0.18

Table 16
Average Electricity Prices
(Cents per Kilowatthour)

0.72

0.58

0.45

0.47

0.77

0.52

0.57

0.46

0.30

Table 17
Gross Domestic Product
(Billion Dollars)

273

317

292

191

209

225

206

348

230

Note: No results are shown for AEO90 because there are not enough values in the intervening years to compute a 5-year moving average.
Source: Tables 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 13, 14, 15, 16, and 17.