Publication

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Average Absolute Error

(Nominal Dollars per Million Btu)

AEO82

1.95

2.02

2.10

2.20

2.32

2.48

0.66

AEO83

1.95

2.02

2.10

2.19

2.31

2.43

3.13

0.82

AEO84

1.89

1.96

2.04

2.13

2.25

2.37

2.90

0.73

AEO85

1.68

1.75

1.82

1.89

1.98

2.09

2.18

2.27

2.36

2.43

2.51

0.63

AEO86

1.61

1.68

1.75

1.84

1.94

2.04

2.13

2.23

2.33

2.43

2.50

2.56

2.62

0.73

AEO87

1.52

1.56

1.66

1.76

1.85

1.94

2.04

2.12

2.21

0.43

AEO89

1.50

1.52

1.67

1.75

1.81

1.88

1.95

2.01

2.06

2.13

2.16

0.48

AEO90

1.46

1.53

1.91

0.22

AEO91

1.51

1.59

1.67

1.76

1.85

1.91

1.97

2.03

2.07

0.46

AEO92

1.55

1.62

1.67

1.75

1.83

1.91

1.93

1.99

0.44

AEO93

2.00

1.53

1.59

1.67

1.71

1.78

1.81

0.40

AEO94

1.51

1.56

1.64

1.72

1.76

1.77

0.35

AEO95

1.42

1.46

1.47

1.52

1.54

0.18

AEO96

1.35

1.34

1.36

1.36

0.07

AEO97

1.35

1.37

1.37

0.09

AEO98

1.27

1.27

0.01

AEO99

1.31

0.05

Actual Value

1.65

1.58

1.51

1.47

1.45

1.46

1.45

1.41

1.39

1.36

1.32

1.29

1.27

1.26

Average Absolute Error

0.22

0.29

0.37

0.42

0.47

0.52

0.38

0.51

0.48

0.53

0.76

0.49

0.50

0.49

0.49

(Percent Error)

AEO82

18.1

28.2

39.3

50.0

59.7

70.1

44.2

AEO83

18.4

27.8

39.6

49.4

59.1

66.6

137.7

57.0

AEO84

14.7

24.4

35.2

45.5

54.9

62.2

120.3

51.0

AEO85

1.9

10.7

21.0

28.8

36.5

43.1

51.0

60.8

69.5

78.4

90.4

44.7

AEO86

2.0

11.6

19.5

26.6

32.8

41.0

51.1

60.3

71.6

84.2

93.8

101.7

107.7

54.1

AEO87

0.9

6.7

14.6

20.4

27.8

37.2

46.6

56.2

67.8

30.9

AEO89

2.3

4.9

14.7

21.1

28.3

35.5

43.6

52.5

59.7

67.4

71.6

36.5

AEO90

0.7

5.1

44.6

16.8

AEO91

3.4

9.9

18.0

27.0

36.2

44.6

52.3

59.6

64.5

35.1

AEO92

7.0

15.0

19.9

28.8

38.6

47.8

52.1

57.8

33.4

AEO93

41.8

10.0

16.7

26.6

32.6

40.0

43.5

30.2

AEO94

8.5

14.4

24.8

33.3

38.8

40.6

26.7

AEO95

4.7

10.5

14.2

19.9

22.1

14.3

AEO96

2.4

4.2

7.0

8.2

5.5

AEO97

5.0

7.9

9.1

7.3

AEO98

0.3

0.6

0.4

AEO99

4.3

4.3

Average Absolute Percent Error

13.3

18.6

24.6

28.9

32.1

35.4

26.3

36.0

34.6

39.0

57.3

38.1

39.5

39.1

35.9

AEO = Annual Energy Outlook.
Btu = British thermal unit.
Sources: Actual Values: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA-0035(99/05) (Washington, DC, May 1999). Projections: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, DOE/EIA-0383(82-99) (Washington, DC, April 1983 - December 1998).